Covid news: Johnson hints at tighter border rules and says new variant could be more deadly

A Sage member has predicted that the government will face “the mother of all arguments” next month as some MPs call for the lockdown to be relaxed.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter warned that intensive care units will still be under pressure even as deaths drop significantly.

He BBC News: "The one thing I can be absolutely confident about is that by this time next month there is going to be the mother of all arguments. Because it's quite feasible that deaths will have come down considerably, infections should have come down considerably, hospitalisations and ICU will still be under a lot of pressure.

"There will be enormous pressure to loosen things up. Loosening it up will inevitably lead to an increase in cases, a resurgence of the pandemic among younger groups and we can see then that does seep through into hospitalisations. So, there's going to be a real battle going on."

Daily death figures will likely continue to rise in the next 10 days, a scientist has said, although the UK appears to be over this peak of infections.

Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said: “Today’s release of data (ONS and R-values) support the view that we are past this peak of infections.  This is true across all the UK’s nations.  Scotland has less people infected than the others.  London has been hit very hard again."  

He predicted that the UK’s number of daily deaths is “likely to increase and peak" within the next 10 days approximately, adding: "As we saw with the first wave, cases rocket up but only float back down.  Each death will have broken the heats of those left behind.  We cannot be numb to the scale of this tragedy.

Prof Naismith said: “The ONS data has some areas of concern that bear watching – in some regions, the decrease in prevalence has slowed and perhaps even levelled off.  Hopefully, next week we will see a resumption in decrease.  Similarly, some age groups might also show levelling off in the decrease of prevalence.  There was no data release last Friday and any slow down in decrease may be an illusion."

While the R number’s decrease is “extremely encouraging”, it should not be taken as “firm evidence” that lockdown has been successful, a mathematical expert has warned. 

Dr Yuliya Kyrychko, Reader in Mathematics at the University of Sussex said: “It is extremely encouraging to note that the latest estimates of R number have reduced slightly from last week.

However, she cautioned against “interpreting it as a firm evidence of the lockdown being successful", as R estimates are calculated with lagging data and so “represent a situation a week or two ago”.

Dr Kyrychko also underlined the role of regional variation, saying: "There appears to be a significant variation between different regions of England, with some them actually exhibiting a growth in disease prevalence since last week.  This provides some of the reasons for still very high numbers of new daily confirmed cases.”

Ministers must stop blaming the public for high coronavirus infection rates and tighten “flexible” rules in the national lockdown, scientists have urged.

Speaking after Priti Patel, the home secretary, focused on adherence and unveiled new fines for breaches of the government’s restrictions, the Independent Sage group insisted that compliance was “extremely high”.

“The problem does not lie with the public,” stressed professor Stephen Reicher of the University of St Andrews as he called for greater support for those required to self-isolate.

Ashley Cowburn reports:

The European Ombudsman is investigating the secrecy with which the European Commission is handling Covid-19 vaccine supply contracts, Reuters reports.

The Commission says that confidentiality is necessary to allow the EU to strike better deals with companies. 

The EU has spent about 2.5 billion euros on deposits to secure nearly 2.3 billion doses of Covid-19 candidates and approved vaccines from six companies. The pricing, delivery terms and other key clauses are confidential.

"We have just opened an inquiry into the Commission's refusal to give public access to documents concerning the purchase of vaccines against Covid-19," a spokesperson for the EU Ombudsman said.

The Commission had no specific comment but said it would cooperate with the Ombudsman.

A 20-year-old man has denied sending scam messages related to the Covid-19 vaccine.

Munasar Jiniqow pleaded not guilty to charges of fraud by false representation and possession of blank NHS prescription slips for use in fraud at Birmingham Magistrates' Court today.

Mr Jiniqow is alleged to have sent "phishing and smishing" messages purporting to be from the DVLA, HMRCS, Virgin and the NHS, intending to cause loss to unspecified persons between 1 December last year and 21 January.

He was arrested on Thursday by officers from the Dedicated Card and Payment Crime Unit (DCPCU), a specialist police unit funded by the banking industry.

A search was conducted at the suspect's address on Sandon Road, in Birmingham, where a number of digital devices were seized.

Care groups have expressed doubts that the NHS will meet a target set out in a letter to GPs to have elderly care home residents and staff given a coronavirus vaccine by Sunday.

Care England said it is unlikely this will happen, despite a ramping up of efforts to get the vaccinations into care homes this week.

On 13 January, NHS England wrote to GP surgeries saying it "expects" care home residents and staff at homes across England to be vaccinated by the end of the week, or by 24 January "at the latest".

The government has said it intends to have offered the jab to all care home residents by the end of January.

Today, the prime minister's official spokesman said that all care home residents would receive their first coronavirus vaccine jab "by the end of the month". The latest update is that 63 per cent of residents have been vaccinated.

Prime minister Boris Johnson will be holding a Downing Street press conference at about 5pm today.

He will be joined by England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty and the UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

As many as one in 20 people in some areas of England may have had Covid-19 last week, new figures suggest.

Knowsley, Liverpool, Rochdale, Sefton and West Lancashire in northwest England, along with Barking and Dagenham, Croydon, Newham and Redbridge in London, are the local authorities where about 5 per cent of the population are thought to have had the virus in the period 12 to 17 January.

They are the highest estimates for any local areas in England.

The figures, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), are for people in private households and do not include those in hospitals, care homes and other institutional settings. The figures should be treated with caution as they are based on small sample sizes and have a higher degree of uncertainty than national and regional estimates.

The prime minister has begun today’s press conference by saying there is “some evidence” that the new variant identified in London and the South East “may be associated with a higher degree of mortality”.