Covid – latest: Eris variant sparks fears of new rise in cases as UK sees spike in infections

Currently, no.

Government statistics show that, in England, deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate have been steadily decreasing since the end of March – and continue to do so. Although it is possible that this figure could see a delayed increase following the recent rises in Covid-19 cases and hospital admissions.

However, the continued Covid vaccine rollout means that these figures are much less closely related than they were at the height of the pandemic. As Covid-19 immunity rises, less cases and hospital admissions are resulting in deaths.

Whether the Covid immunity granted by vaccines wanes over time is another matter. Past studies of Omicron indicate that it likely does, especially in older people – but a further vaccine rollout can be expected in Autumn of this year, according to the UKHSA

Current research suggests that Eris is not shaping up to be the mass infector its parent variant Omicron was back in late 2021 to early 2022.

Speaking to The Independent, Professor Azeem Majeed of Imperial College London points out that EG.5.1 is a version of the Omicron variant that appeared in the UK at the end of 2021, and WHO has designated EG.5 as a variant under monitoring (VUM) but not as a variant of concern (VOC), as Omicron was.

However, the UKHSA recommends continued diligence – perhaps more so than we’ve been used to these past few months. Their most recent guidance recommends:

“Regular and thorough hand washing helps protect you from COVID-19 and other bugs and viruses. If you have symptoms of a respiratory illness, we recommend staying away from others where possible.”

The most recent government data shows that the South West of England is currently experiencing a spike in known cases of Covid-19. On average Cornwall, Somerset, and Devon are up 37.48 per cent this past week, with the latter being the highest by far with a 104 per cent increase.

Elsewhere in the South, Surrey has similarly seen a 103 per cent increase, with 122 cases.

The Midlands is also noticing a slight uptick, as cases in Worcestershire are up by 45.2 per cent, in Staffordshire by 41.7 per cent, and in Derbyshire by 121.4 per cent – the highest of anywhere in the country this week.

Official government data shows that Covid infections and related hospital admissions in England have been steadily rising since around the start of July. This is the first rise the country has seen since a sharp increase in March, followed by a relatively sharp decrease by April.

In the last seven days, 4,076 people tested positive for Covid-19 in England, up 27.8 per cent from the previous week. Meanwhile, 1,438 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital, a worrying 40.7 per cent increase from the previous week.

It has been suggested that Barbenheimer – the term coined for the double bill of watching box-office smashes Barbie and Oppenheimer back-to-back – may have contributed to an increase in Covid cases this Summer. This is due to increased indoor mixing in closed spaces. Experts give their view:

Independent Sage member Prof Christina Pagel told The Independent she believes the UK is “definitely starting another wave” driven by Omicron subvariants, Arcturus and Eris, waning immunity and poor weather.

She said: “The wet weather over the last few weeks probably isn’t helping either as it keeps people inside.”

But head of primary care and public health at Imperial College London, Professor Azeem Majeed downplayed the concerns about the Eris variant.

“I don’t feel that people should be unduly worried by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases. Case numbers will fluctuate and there will be periods when the number of cases in the UK increases,” he told The Independent.

He said that EG.5.1 is a version of the Omicron variant that appeared in the UK at the end of 2021, and WHO has designated EG.5 as a variant under monitoring (VUM) but not as a variant of concern (VOC).

A COVID-19 surveillance report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that hospital admissions in the UK are on the rise:

Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at the UKHSA, said:

“We continue to see a rise in COVID-19 cases in this week’s report. We have also seen a small rise in hospital admission rates in most age groups, particularly among the elderly. Overall levels of admission still remain extremely low and we are not currently seeing a similar increase in ICU admissions. We will continue to monitor these rates closely.”

In another report focussing on variant monitoring, EG.5.1, or Eris, was officially acknowledged as a variant:

“EG.5.1 was first raised as a signal in monitoring on 3 July 2023 as part of horizon scanning due to increasing reports internationally, particularly in Asia.”

“In the week beginning 10 July 2023, 11.8% of UK sequences had been classified as EG.5.1 (data as of 27 July 2023).”

As Eris becomes Ithe second most prevalent variant in the UK after Arcturus, here’s what to look out for:

An expert has said that the UK is “flying blind” when it comes to dealing with Covid this autumn.

Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, said that a new wave of Covid was underway.

She warned: “We might see the wave continue to grow, and grow faster, in September.”

She added: “What worries me most is if we get a repeat of the last winter NHS crisis this winter again, with Covid, flu and RSV all hitting around the same time. We are definitely flying near blind.”