‘Underestimated’: How Bolsonaro defied pollsters to keep re-election bid alive

Many had come to bury Jair Bolsonaro – the destroyer of the Amazon, the man who would rather have a son die than be gay, and who calls Covid a “little flu” despite it killing almost 700,000 Brazilians – but the first round of voting in the country’s general election has proved that the populist has a very loyal following of supporters.

Against predictions, the current president’s vote held up, easily ensuring a second vote will be needed on 30 October.

The right-winger took more than 43 per cent of the vote, versus 48 per cent for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, or “Lula”.

Opinion polls beforehand all pointed to a Lula victory, some even giving him such a lead that they suggested a second vote would not be necessary as the left-winger was on course to claim more than half of all votes.

That was unlikely as such an event has not happened this century in Brazilian elections.

In fact, the polls were largely correct about the vote for Lula and his Workers’ Party. But they were wrong, very wrong, on Bolsonaro’s share, who was predicted to get some 31 per cent of the vote.

He passed that easily and such strength at the polls was disappointing for anyone on the progressive side of the political debate in Brazil.

Adding to the sense of disappointment was that Bolsonaro, his Liberal Party, and right-wing allies also gave a strong enough showing to secure a majority in Brazil’s lower house. Those allies could be key in the coming weeks.

“I plan to make the right political alliances to win this election,” Bolsonaro told journalists in the immediate aftermath of the vote.

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On Monday, he turned his scorn to pollsters.

“Many people were carried away by the lies propagated by the research institutes,” Bolsonaro wrote on Twitter. “All their predictions were wrong and they are already the biggest losers of this election. We beat that lie and now we’re going to win the election!”

Always likely to be able to count on the strong evangelical vote – and large numbers of current and former Brazilian football stars – it seems that Bolsonaro was able to secure votes from what was traditionally the centre ground.

Now he needs votes from the centre-right to try and get another four years in power.

“This is a big defeat for the democratic centre that saw its voters migrate to Bolsonaro,” said Arilton Freres, director of Curitiba-based Instituto Opiniao. “Lula starts ahead, but it won’t be easy for him.”

It all means that a deeply politically divided Brazil now faces an extra month of political campaigning.

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A Lula victory had hinted at detoxifying Brazil’s international reputation, which has worsened under Bolsonaro, who has been compared to Donald Trump, Silvio Berlusconi and even Nazi propagandist, Joseph Goebbels. But whatever the final result, the first round demonstrates that, domestically, Bolsonaro and his antics have taken hold in Brazilian politics.

Campaigning for the second-round kicked off on Monday and it threatens to be a tough few weeks.

The run-up to the tense first vote was marked by violence with two of Lula’s supporters being killed and Bolsonaro regularly threatening not to recognise the result of the vote if he lost, just like Trump in the US in 2020.

And the prolonged battle for the presidency comes as Brazil is faced with surging food and fuel prices, as well as an economic slowdown. An estimated 33 million people out of 217 million are in extreme poverty and hunger is a real issue for many.

“Brazil is much more polarised than many people thought, and governing will be difficult for whomever wins,” said Brian Winter, vice-president for policy at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas.

“I think the next few weeks will put heavy strain on Brazil‘s democracy as these two men fight it out. Expect an ugly race that will leave scars.”

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Lula is still the favourite but he is no longer a certainty.

“Clearly Bolsonarismo was underestimated,” said Humberto Costa, a former member of Lula’s Workers’ Party.