An end to the conflict in Ukraine now feels further away than ever

The grain deal had – indirectly – prevented some 100 million people from falling into extreme poverty, according to the United Nations. It lowered food prices worldwide. It was protecting crops and harvests for the seasons to come. It was set to help stave off hunger in the years ahead of us.

What at first glance appeared to be a logistics and export agreement between Russia and Ukraine has in fact protected the lives of swathes of people globally.

And now it has been put indefinitely on hold by Moscow, which on Saturday accused Kyiv – together with “British specialists” – of launching a massive drone attack on its Black Sea fleet docked in a port in Crimea, which president Putin annexed illegally in 2014. This action, Moscow said, was “reckless” and destroyed the security of the grain corridor.

The Kremlin’s decision could be devastating as the globe struggles with a rising cost of living and food shortages, in part sparked by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Ukrainian officials have said it also proves that any form of talks with Russia “are a waste of time”. An end to this war now feels further away than ever.

The collapse of the grain deal because of this alleged drone attack also underlines the urgent need to separate battlefield realities on the ground from mechanisms that protect the world. Otherwise, states can hold a sword above the heads of millions of people – a power no one should have.

Brokered by the UN and Turkey in July, the deal ensured safe passage of ships carrying grain and food items in and out of Ukraine’s main port, Odesa, and two other Ukrainian ports: a sort of “de facto ceasefire” for the vessels and facilities covered under the agreement.

It had freed nine million tonnes of grain alongside food products such as sunflower oil that were trapped in Ukraine, a country that before the war had been nicknamed the breadbasket of the world. The United Nations and Russia also signed a memorandum of understanding committing the UN to facilitating unimpeded access of Russian fertilisers and other products to global markets.

Everything was monitored by a joint coordination centre, which included Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and UN officials. The UN said the aim was “to provide some kind of solace to the global South”.

Certainly, before the deal I saw the impact of the grain crisis play out in real time in cash-strapped Lebanon, which relies on Ukrainian wheat and experienced significant bread shortages shortly after the conflict erupted. There are also major fears for countries such as Somalia, where the UN has warned that “famine is at the door” as thousands are dying in a historic drought made worse by the effects of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The grain agreement helped to ease this.

After the implementation of the deal, the UN’s food index, which measures monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of basic food goods, declined for months in a row, the UN’s secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday, a day before Russia pulled out of the agreement.

Without the deal, which ensured that fertilisers and food could reach international markets, planting season would have been affected globally, Mr Guterres continued. Crops in all regions of the world for 2023 and 2024 would have been endangered, having a “dramatic effect on food production and food prices worldwide”.

The deal was due to expire next month, so Guterres urged everyone to renew it. Just one day later, however, the opposite happened, and that is going to have repercussions that ripple throughout the world.

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US president Joe Biden warned that the end of the deal would increase levels of starvation; secretary of state Antony Blinken accused Russia of weaponising food; and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow was trying to create an artificial famine in Africa, the Middle East and south Asia.

Russia has hit back, saying that Ukraine’s partners were essentially defending a “terrorist” act, adding that Kyiv was to blame for the grain deal falling apart.

So far, Turkey has yet to comment, and its brokering skills will be key. The UN said it was in talks with Russian officials – there will be furious diplomacy ahead to try to repair the deal, which could save countless lives.

But the collapse of the deal has shown how far the repercussions of this war stretch beyond the borders of Ukraine or Russia, or even the neighbouring states. It has highlighted just how important it is to have protections in place to ensure the fate of millions of lives is not held in the hands of the few.