The Jersey gunboats are awfully convenient for Boris Johnson – but not even he would start a war for votes

What better headlines on election day than “Boris sends gunboats”, in the Daily Mail, Daily Express and Mirror. A bit of anti-French patriotism might go down particularly well in Hartlepool, where legend has it that a monkey that survived a shipwreck during the Napoleonic wars was hanged as a French spy.

It won’t be long before conspiracy theorists suggest that the prime minister engineered the showdown with French fishing boats in Channel Islands waters in order to provide a suitably nationalist backdrop to his biggest electoral test since the general election.

That does not take into account the diplomatic skill of Annick Girardin, the French minister of the sea, who responded to a dispute about fishing rights by threatening to cut off Jersey’s electricity supply: “I would remind you, for example, of the transport of electricity via submarine cables. So we have the means, and even though I’m sorry it has come to this, we will do so if we have to.”

As so often with conspiracy theories, you have to assume that leading members of the Other Side are in fact secret agents for their opponents.

The rights and wrongs of the original dispute are complicated, although I assume from the overconfidence of British government officials that their case is strong. If French boats cannot prove that they have fished in Jersey’s waters in the past, they are not allowed to do so now, under the terms of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement – the post-Brexit trade deal.

But the arrogance of the statements from the British side suggest that some of our officials might be working secretly for the French. “This is just the latest example of the EU issuing threats as a first resort at any sign of difficulty,” said a government spokesperson. “They should be using the mechanisms of our new treaty to solve problems; that is exactly what it is there for.” That is rich from a government that threatened to tear up the Brexit withdrawal agreement – admitting that it would break international law – rather than use its disputes resolution mechanism to sort out a problem of the Northern Irish border.

The anonymous sources were worse. One told The Sun and the Daily Mail: “At least when the Germans invaded in the Second World War they kept the lights on.” Another “government official” suggested to Politico that Emmanuel Macron was overcompensating for sexual inadequacy.

Such crudity will only poison relations with our neighbours and trading partners, with whom it is in our interest to stay on good terms. And if our legal case is as strong as officials suggest, then it doesn’t need insults to press it.

But it cannot be denied that photos of Royal Navy fishing protection ships will helpfully distract attention from the betrayal of the distant-water fishing business by the collapse of talks with Norway and make Johnson look as if he is standing up for the rights of British fishing interests on polling day. We can’t know how many people would have seen the headlines this morning and thought, “I must go out and vote Conservative,” who would otherwise not have bothered, but it can’t have helped the Labour Party.

John Healey, the shadow defence secretary, admitted as much if you read between the lines of his statement issued this morning: “The threats on Jersey are completely unreasonable. The Navy’s experience in sensitive situations will help reassure residents and protect Britain’s broader national interests. The British government must now get round the table with French colleagues and authorities in Jersey and sort this issue out.” In other words: “We surrender. Vote for us.”

Even if it was the French who determined the timing of this particular flare-up, it is typical of Johnson’s luck. Like a rugby player in a soccer match, he creates unexpected opportunities. His style of chaos and bluster often has a way of encouraging others – Jo Swinson letting him hold the general election; Girardin issuing silly threats – to make mistakes in his favour.