‘They are spooked’ – Covid cases are rising but no one in the government wants to talk about it

The 45,066 new coronavirus cases announced on Thursday was the highest daily figure since 20 July, and the number is up 11 per cent on last week. The UK’s level of cases and deaths is the highest in Europe and second highest in the world after the US.

Although their scientific advisers are increasingly worried about the NHS’s ability to cope this winter, ministers seem reluctant to speak about Covid. “They are spooked by NHS waiting lists and wondering how the hell they will get them down,” one ministerial aide told me, in a week when the number of people on the list rose to a record 5.74 million.

Talking up the potentially dangerous combination of Covid and flu does not fit with Boris Johnson’s preferred mix of optimism and boosterism. Perhaps ministers are suffering from Covid fatigue, like many members of the public and parts of the media. Ministers point out the figures are not yet in the 50,000 to 100,000 range predicted. True, they have their hands full wrestling with supply chain problems which, for now, pose a bigger threat to Christmas than the pandemic.

Johnson is desperately hoping to avoid another Downing Street press conference at which he urges or even orders people to wear masks or work from home. But the other two amigos are warning that the battle against Covid is not over. Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said this winter will be “exceptionally difficult” for the NHS and Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, warned that "we’re not out of the woods”.

Politicians and scientists are like chalk and cheese; one lesson from the pandemic is that they need to learn to work better together. I was fascinated by Vallance’s comment that scientists view with excitement new information that makes them change their minds but to politicians that amounts to a dreaded “U-turn” – the headline they are so keen to avoid. (The U-turnometer is running fast on supply chain issues – on visas for lorry drivers, poultry workers and butchers and cabotage rules, often after ministers ruled out such measures.) U-turnphobia was one reason why Johnson wrongly delayed a second lockdown last autumn and his change of tack over Covid restrictions last Christmas.

In a revealing BBC Radio 4 interview, Vallance challenged the mantra that ministers “followed the science” during the pandemic. “I don’t think it’s helpful when you end up with policy dressed up as science; it is very confusing for people,” he said. He insisted scientists only inform decisions which must be made by politicians; their job is not to “sugarcoat” advice or tell ministers what they want to hear.

Vallance acknowledged that his instinct on lockdowns is to go sooner, harder and geographically wider than ministers want – a debate which could soon return. “I will say it going forward and the prime minister knows that’s what I think,” he said.

Some interesting light was shone on the relationship between politicians and scientists in this week’s “lessons learnt” report by the Commons health and science select committees. They concluded the scientific advisers were part of the “groupthink” that led to the disastrous delay in imposing the first lockdown in March 2020, and that ministers lacked the confidence to challenge the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

Ministers were so keen to “follow the science” that they waited for clear evidence and did not show the leadership politicians did in other countries on issues such as earlier lockdowns, border controls and an effective test and trace system, which would have saved lives. As the two committees put it: “We find it surprising that the fatalistic assumptions behind the initial scientific advice were not challenged until it became clear the NHS could be overwhelmed, particularly given alternative strategies were being pursued visibly and successfully in East Asian countries.”

Sage was “a very UK body” and the MPs recommended it should in future include experts from around the world. They rightly called for Sage to be made more transparent, with minutes of its meetings published more quickly.

Ministers did not follow Sage’s advice when it urged a two-week circuit-breaker last September, potentially making the second wave worse. In the committees’ report, Johnson got off lightly over his delay in locking down last autumn but ministers worry the official public inquiry that will finally start work next spring will focus on this key moment and be more critical. 

While Tory MPs place bets with each other on whether the prime minister will call a general election in 2023 or 2024, the safest bet in politics is that Johnson, who is dragging his feet over setting up the inquiry, will cynically ensure it does not report until after polling day.