Boris Johnson will be gone in the new year ​if he can’t polish up his image

Get set for Boris Johnson’s new year reboot, with headlines about exciting new initiatives, probably already being written by the right-wing press, leavened with the inevitable culture war rubbish. Don’t forget that.

Expect to see some fresh faces at No 10 too, as if replacing a bloke no one’s heard of as chief of staff will banish the frustration, drift and dismal economic news. And cure Covid while we’re at it.

All this is magical thinking of the worst kind. Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. Putting a bunch of new people around him, and spinning a few yarns for the Daily Telegraph, is going to change precisely nothing.

But here’s the thing: he doesn’t need a successful relaunch to stay in power. And he doesn’t even need nice headlines. He doesn’t necessarily need to change anything much. He just needs to cling on, like a limpet, like previous prime ministers have had a habit of doing.

Among my Independent colleagues, there’s a sharp divergence of opinion as to whether he’ll pull it off.

Our associate editor Sean O’Grady has written, every year of his premiership (including this one), that Johnson will be gone by the end of the year. I imagine he’ll probably do so again.

Our chief political commentator, John Rentoul, on the other hand, thinks we might have to endure this dismal excuse for a prime minister for a lot longer. Maybe even years.

The betting suggests it’s almost a toss-up. The year 2022 for Johnson’s overdue departure from No 10 is as short as 8/11 in some places but you can get something close to evens if you look hard enough.

Now, Rentoul’s argument rests on history. He makes the point that prime ministers have shown a remarkable degree of stickability in the past. Mutinous Tory MPs are still trying to work out when to push the button and, as Rentoul states, “the lesson of recent history is so often that ‘now is not the time’”.

But “the time” could still come in 2022. Start with the fact that the voters finally seem to be getting tired of the act. Sick of it, in fact.

Progressive Twitter regularly used to bemoan the fact that however often Johnson messed up – and thousands of Britons have died as a result of his government’s appalling handling of the pandemic – the Tories seemed to retain a handy poll advantage. A substantial corps of voters appeared willing to give the prime minister the benefit of the doubt. Unprecedented situation and all that.

That’s started to change. Exhibit A is the North Shropshire by-election. Labour’s poll advantage, while still flaky, counts as exhibit B.

Thanks to a steady stream of sleaze, scandal and Covid-rule breaking parties in No 10 Downing Street and other government offices, brand Boris has acquired a thick coat of tarnish. His willingness to say black is white while his pants are on fire has only added to it.

Boris Johnson has lately become the Ratner’s PM, named for the jeweller Gerald Ratner who, discussing a £4.95 decanter during a now-infamous speech, said: “People say to me, ‘How can you sell this for such a low price?’ I say, ‘Because it’s total crap’.” The company never recovered.

The tousle-haired “Boris”, who charmed the voters into handing the Tories their thumping victory at the last election, was ostensibly affable, the bloke voters could envisage having a pint with but someone who could also get things done for them. He was the non-traditional “Heineken” Tory, capable of refreshing the parts other Tories couldn’t.

Today “Boris” has been replaced with “Boris Johnson”. Or just Johnson, said with a snarl. He’s the arrogant toff who thinks the rules don’t apply to him. An all too typical Tory. The very embodiment of the out of touch elite he once railed against.

The voters thought they were getting a diamond when they bought him. They’re starting to realise that he’s not even a £4.95 sherry decanter.

If he can’t polish up his image come the local elections – reviving a damaged brand is an extraordinarily difficult thing to do – and the Tories endure another kicking, things might start to get interesting. Especially with the cost of living crisis biting down hard, the virus, the lack of anything resembling a plan, and the scandals. They’re bound to keep on coming. They’re becoming endemic to the Johnson premiership.

So if Sean O’Grady writes his column again, as I suspect he will, I think he’ll be proved right in 2022. If I could find something close to evens, I’m sufficiently convinced that I’d be inclined to take the price.