Inside Politics: Further changes expected in No 10 as confidence vote looms

The new week brings little respite for Boris Johnson, who faces lingering questions about how much longer he can hang on in No 10 despite an overhaul of his top team, as he desperately attempts to draw a line under the partygate scandal. With reports suggesting that a confidence vote could be triggered as early as this week, one polling expert has said that the Big Dog is fighting a “losing battle” to recover his popularity. Away from the Johnson leadership news, Rishi Sunak’s Treasury has blocked the multibillion pound plan to clear NHS backlogs amid ongoing cabinet tensions, and Emmanuel Macron claims his negotiations with Vladimir Putin will likely prevent war in Ukraine.

The House of Commons sits from 2.30pm with work and pensions questions. After that it is any post-weekend UQs or statements.Later, MPs will move through the annual announcement of the benefits and pensions uprating. There will also be consideration of Lords amendments to the Northern Ireland (Ministers, Elections and Petitions of Concern) Bill.

Coming up:

– Health secretary Sajid Javid on BBC Radio 4 Today at 8.10am

– Shadow work and pensions secretary Jon Ashworth on Times Radio Breakfast at 8.30am

Daily Briefing

ALL CHANGE: The reshuffling of Johnson’s core Downing Street operation continues this week when he fills the newly created role of permanent secretary to No 10, as recommended by the Sue Gray report. Over the weekend cabinet minister Steve Barclay was appointed chief of staff and now apparently has more jobs than Labour deputy Angela Rayner, which is quite the feat. Guto Harri, a former journalist who worked with the PM at City Hall, was installed as his new spin doctor, as Johnson tries to convince Tory MPs that he can change and get his premiership back on track. Changes are also expected in the whips’ office as well as a clear out of advisers. As ever, we’ll have all the latest developments as and when they come in on our liveblog.

TOO LATE?: Are these efforts all too little too late? Even if he did manage to convince colleagues that he is still the man to take them forward, the public has already made up its mind and isn’t for turning. That is the view of Sir John Curtice, one of the country’s top polling experts, who says public opinion has hardened over the past few weeks, a state of affairs which the PM would find “difficult to reverse”. The political scientist said a high proportion of Conservative voters “don’t believe what he is saying”, and revealed that his own analysis of recent surveys shows that 41 per cent of Tory voters at the last election think Mr Johnson should resign. “When two-fifths of the people who voted for him in 2019 think he should go – that’s pretty striking, substantial stuff,” said the University of Strathclyde expert. Meanwhile, Carrie Johnson has once again been dragged into the spotlight over the PM’s chaotic handling of his No 10 operation. She has insisted she “plays no role in government” and has been targeted by “enemies” of the prime minister in a “brutal briefing campaign” after critical comments about her appeared in a book extract over the weekend.

LETTER COUNT LATEST: There is still fevered speculation about how many letters may or may have not gone into Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Tory 1922 Committee who is responsible for organising a no confidence vote in the prime minister should the magic 54 number be reached. Some reports over the weekend put the number already submitted in the 30s, with a flood more expected this week. But some rebel MPs fear a confidence vote in the PM could be triggered “accidentally” as anger over Partygate builds, coming too quickly to oust Johnson, leaving him in office for another 12 months. Several Tory MPs opposed to Johnson told The Independent they were worried that he would still have enough support to win a vote of confidence if it does indeed go ahead. This morning’s i reports that as many as 100 MPs are planning to move against Johnson if a ballot is triggered, which would leave him severely damaged but still in office.

NHS PLAN DELAYED: Health secretary Sajid Javid, who last week joined Sunak in distancing himself from the PM’s Savile comments as the cabinet became split over the issue, has this morning pushed back on reports that a plan to tackle the backlog of patients on hospital waiting lists in England has been put on hold amid claims of wrangling at the top of government. The wide-ranging plan by NHS England to get down the record six million patients waiting for non-urgent operations and procedures had reportedly been expected on Monday. However The Daily Telegraph said the Treasury had refused to sign off on the measures, despite detailed discussions with No 10, the Department of Health and Social Care and the NHS. The paper quoted sources as citing concerns over value for money after deadlines for hitting treatment targets slipped as a result of the Omicron surge. Javid told Sky News earlier that the plan will be published “shortly” and that he did not recognise reports that it was being held up by the Treasury.

DEAL WITHIN REACH: French President Emmanuel Macron is set to hold talks in Moscow on Monday in a bid to to help deescalate the tense situation around Ukraine. Macron, who is set to meet in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin before visiting Ukraine Tuesday, said last week that his priority is “dialogue with Russia and de-escalation.” Ahead of the talks later, Macron said he believes that a deal to prevent war is within reach.

“This is just the latest attempt by bitter ex-officials to discredit her. She is a private individual who plays no role in government.”

Carrie Johnson spokesperson hits back at book criticisms.

“Usually spin doctors are in their job at least a couple of days before becoming the story.”

Daily Mirror Whitehall correspondent Mikey Smith on reports PM’s new spin doctor lobbied for ‘toxic’ Chinese tech giant Huawei.

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