UK’s climate change sceptics change course with ‘false’ new narrative

Synonymous with climate change denialism, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) has seemingly rebranded itself in an attempt to present a less controversial, more palatable form of skepticism to a crisis that threatens to knock the world off its axis.

Net Zero Watch (NZW), launched this week, has announced its intention to “shake the tree” by providing a “serious analysis of naïve and un-costed decarbonisation policies” in Britain.

With the UK committed to reducing all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, NZW said it will scrutinise the government’s policies, “establishing what they really cost, determining who will be forced to pay, and exploring affordable alternatives”.

It’s a narrative that may no longer explicitly endorse climate change denialism, but one that certainly attempts to take the wind out of the UK’s sails as focus turns towards a greener, cleaner future.

Conservative backbencher Steve Baker, who also co-leads the right-wing Covid Recovery Group, has thrown his support behind the campaign, writing this week that “the 'experts' in Westminster have been basing your future and mine on a plan that relies, to a very great extent, on a collective crossing of the fingers."

In a conversation with Politico, NZW director Benny Peiser said that “dozens” of other MPs have inquired about the group - though none have yet to publicly join Baker.

The group has its work cut out in turning public opinion against the drive to decarbonise the UK, with the climate crisis repeatedly ranking as one of the most pressing issues for the population in various polls and research studies.

Despite NZW’s softer, subtler approach to the climate crisis debate, a closer look at those involved with the campaign suggests its discourse and direction of travel could well change very quickly.

Dr Benny Peiser - director: A sports anthropologist and historian, and past senior lecturer in social anthropology and sport sociology at Liverpool John Moores University.

Notable quotes:

“Europe, with its green obsession, is making itself poorer as it is, and Africans will increasingly look to Asia for investments, factories, technology. Europe is, in many ways, shooting itself in the foot with these green measures” - 1 July 2020, speaking on a Heartland Institute podcast.

Global warming “is not something that people […] need to be greatly concerned about.” - 20 January 2016, speaking to Reuters.

Andrew Montford - deputy director: An English writer, editor and chartered accountant. Appointed deputy director of GWPF in 2010.

Notable quotes:

“As I watch the snow blow past my window, it’s hard not to scoff at the idea of a ‘climate emergency’. However, I’m probably in a minority.” - 21 February, writing in The Spectator.

“Net Zero is already negatively impacting on the economy, and the fear spread by the green doom-mongers is harming our mental health and faith in the future.” - 1 April 2021, writing in Spiked.

Harry Wilkinson - head of policy: Aide to Nigel Lawson, the founder of GWPF.

Notable quotes:

“A lot of these extreme weather events are actually not analysed rationally but are instead blown up as something that almost the climate is collapsing around us and that we’re in this very imminent crisis.” - 17 January 2020, speaking to talkRADIO.

“That global warming can be somehow ‘irreversible’ is pure propaganda; the climate has always been changing and it always will. […] A temperature rise of more than two degrees is not inherently dangerous either.” - 22 September 2018, writing in Conservative Women.

Nigel Lawson - chairman: Lord and former chancellor under prime minister Margaret Thatcher. Founder of GWPF. A key figure in the climate change denial movement, and believes that the impact of man-made global warming has been exaggerated.

Notable quotes:

Addressing the UK’s plans to decarbonise the economy, Lord Lawson said: “I have never been more depressed about the future of this country. I hope the Government might come to its sense and abandon this plan, but it’s absolutely a commitment they’ve made so far, but it’s a suicidal commitment.” - 6 December 2020, speaking on a YouTube podcast.

The reaction to NZW

With Cop26 around the corner, the government will be keen to knock back any attempts from its own MPs to undermine the push to decarbonise the economy and reach net zero emissions by 2050.

While Steve Backer is the only Tory to openly align himself to NZW, up to 40 Conservative MPs have come together to form the similar-themed Net Zero Scrutiny Group.

Speaking with Politico this week, Alok Sharma, the UK’s lead for Cop26, warned: “What's important is to be able to explain to parliamentary colleagues, but across the country as well, that the cost of not getting this right now is going to be far higher if we leave this."

Mark Maslin, a professor of Earth System Science at University College London, said a group like NZW fitted into a wider trend of climate change denialists “changing their narrative”.

“With the recent IPCC report and all the stuff that’s happening this year, it’s hard to deny the climate crisis,” he told The Independent. “These kind of groups are now changing tact to ‘It’s very expensive to go to zero carbon. It’s poor people who will be affected.’

“It’s important people realise these narratives are false. A huge American-funded project found that US$46 trillion would be saved annually if we went to net zero globally and cut all emissions.

“All experts and economists will tell you that if you decarbonise in the right way, it boosts the green economy in your country, it improves air pollution, health costs come down, so it’s win-win.”