Will Turkey-EU deal work? Listen to the 'unnamed officials'

The opinions of unnamed officials are always worth paying attention to, and a few pertinent examples can be found in the current wrangling over the EU-Turkey refugee deal. Politicians have praised the deal: EU chief Donald Tusk promised it would put a stop to all irregular migration into Europe, while Germany’s interior minister said it heralded the passing of the peak of the crisis. David Cameron and Angela Merkel – the deal’s chief architect – have also given their seal of approval.

What, exactly, are they so confident about? First, that Greece will be able to seal its borders. Second, that it will be able to manage humane detention centres. Third, that it will deport all migrants who try to steal across. And fourth, that Turkey will support the Syrians whom Greece does eventually deposit in ports such as Dikili.

It requires some chutzpah to envision a world in which all those ducks line up. Supporters will note that the first 200 deportations took place peaceably yesterday (there are 8,000 people slated for return to Turkey from islands in Greece). Sceptics – and I include myself here – will note that these refugees were mainly Pakistani, and as such were already being deported by Greece before the EU deal was signed. Things will likely take a turn for the worse when authorities begin to actually round up Syrians who arrived in Greece after the cut-off date of 20 March. “I will throw myself and my family into the sea,” one told the AFP news agency.

In order to convince themselves that Greece and Turkey are capable of handling the bulk of the European refugee crisis, Tusk, Merkel and co have adopted a cheerful, “suck-it-and-see” approach. But anybody who has been watching Greece, or Turkey, closely in the past few years will have a fairly clear idea of how ugly this deal will be.

And so to the unnamed officials. Will Greece be able to manage an increased role in refugee management? The EU now answers “yes”, despite a series of withering assessments in the past. But one senior insider involved with preparing Greece to meet the deadline for the Turkey deal (only 17 days passed between it being signed and the departure of the first boats) gave a more frank assessment: “We have a week to build a Greek state”.

Needless to say, that bar has not been cleared. What camps there are remain over-run. Nor has the promised influx of EU interpreters and border guards arrived. “We’re far from having the people, let alone trained people”, another unnamed source complained. In short, Europe has dumped the problem on one of its weakest states, and failed to fulfil its side of the bargain.

Turkey, for its part, has allegedly been shooting civilians on the border with Syria. Amnesty International reports that it has broken international law and deported Syrians back across the border and into a warzone. Will penning Syrians within Turkey put an end to the crisis, in any case? Probably not. More will return to Europe, only this time via Libya.

The EU has an incentive to brush over these inconvenient truths. We have a duty to listen to the officials – named or not – who give the other side of the story.