Will Ukraine achieve its dream of being fast-tracked to the EU?

The raid on the home of billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky is the latest action in a highly publicised anti-corruption crackdown that has been carried out recently by Volodymyr Zelensky’s government.

The Ukrainian security service, the SBU, was quick to push out images of the 59-year-old oligarch looking bemused, standing with his arms folded and wearing a tracksuit, as his home in Dnipro was searched by investigators.

Another raid was carried out on the home and offices of Arsen Avakov – who was, until recently, the powerful interior minister who headed Ukraine’s police and National Guard.

At the same time, there are repeated claims by the Ukrainian government – including Zelensky and defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, among others – that Moscow has mobilised 500,000 troops and plans to launch an offensive around the anniversary of the war on 24 February.

All this was taking place as the week ended with a meeting of great significance between European Union officials and the Zelensky government, with calls for Ukraine’s expedited membership under discussion.

The summit – attended by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and president of the European Council Charles Michel – was held in Kyiv. It is the first such gathering to take place in a war zone, and has garnered much media coverage.

But Ukraine is highly unlikely to achieve its aim of being fast-tracked. “There are no rigid timelines, but there are goals that you have to reach,” Von der Leyen told a news conference in response to a question about Ukraine’s accession drive. There has, instead, been a show of further solidarity, including the doubling of the training mission for Ukrainian troops to 30,000 and the provision of €25m (£22.4m) to de-mine liberated territories, as well as the possible announcement of more sanctions on Russia.

The warning of the Russian mobilisation also comes as the Ukrainian government urges its allies to hasten the delivery of tanks they have pledged, including Leopard, Abrams and Challenger models. And having secured promises of armour, the country is now lobbying for US F-16 warplanes. Following Russian missile attacks on Thursday, the eve of the summit, Zelensky posted on social media: “The only way to stop Russian terrorism is to defeat it. By tanks, fighter jets, long-range missiles.”

It may well be the case that Russia will try to do something around the anniversary of the war. But Western intelligence and defence officials – as well as, in private, individual Ukrainian commanders – stress that they have seen no evidence that the Kremlin is yet in a position to launch a major offensive.

Russia is, however, likely to continue its operations in the Donbas, in the east of Ukraine, where it has had some incremental success; and there may be more rounds of missile strikes, with reports that Moscow has increased production of the weapons and is also securing parts from abroad.

There is a case to be made that the European Union should consider Ukraine an exceptional case for membership. Brussels could perhaps have prevented what befell the country if it had been more flexible in the past.

Ukraine thought it was on its way to achieving closer integration when Brussels and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented terms that many Western officials now agree were too strict. This led Ukraine’s former president, Viktor Yanukovych, who was already pro-Moscow, to turn to Vladimir Putin for an economic bailout – which arrived in the form of a $15bn investment in Ukraine’s national debt and a one-third reduction in gas prices.

The blocking of the path to the West led to turmoil. I remember being with colleagues at a conference in Yalta, in Crimea, in 2013, when the mood was euphoric with the prospect of closer ties with the European Union. We were back in Ukraine a few months later for the Maidan uprising in Kyiv. Crimea was lost to the Russians in the violent struggle that followed.

One particular problem that continues to dog Ukraine in its dealings with international institutions has been that of corruption. The IMF has previously tied its agreement to extend loans to Kyiv to the condition that Ukraine’s government take steps to tackle malpractice. Anti-corruption reforms are one of key demands of the European Union.

But the recent firings and resignations of ministers, alongside raids by investigators, are not going to help Ukraine achieve its desire of European Union membership within two years – a time frame the country’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, acknowledges is an “ambitious goal”.

Ukraine gained candidacy status at record speed last year, something Zelensky celebrated as a unique and historic moment. But there is strong opposition in Brussels to this turning into full membership in record time, with so many other states – Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and Turkey, to name a few – still languishing in the queue.

The pursuit of some of the oligarchs and senior politicians by the Ukrainian authorities is an indication of the single-mindedness with which Zelensky is prepared to pursue his government’s goals for the country.

Kolomoisky is not just any oligarch: his media outlets provided extensive coverage and logistical back-up during Zelensky’s successful presidential campaign. Zelensky’s lawyer was the oligarch’s lawyer. It was claimed by Ukrainian journalists that Kolomoisky was visited 14 times in exile by Zelensky.

Kolomoisky also funded the Azov Battalion, a private force that fought against the Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas in 2014. Those of us who covered the war saw them in action, including in some highly controversial circumstances.

But they were the ones who stayed behind in the strategic port city of Mariupol, when the Ukrainian army withdrew. It was also in that city that thousands of Azov fighters were taken prisoner last year after a long siege following the Russian invasion.

Avakov also played a prominent part in the separatist war, with the National Guard, under his authority, taking part in combat. He was a detested figure among Russian-backed militias. In 2014, Russia asked for Avakov to be placed on the wanted list, and in the same year a Moscow district court issued an arrest warrant for him in absentia.

But there are now new strategic realities, and the tainted old guard and oligarchs are expendable as Zelensky seeks to cement the ties – with the European Union and Nato – that his country needs in what is going to be a very long war.