Erdogan aims to win re-election – violence may be plan B

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is doing his best to win Turkey’s 14 May presidential elections on the lopsided battlefield that already favours him. But among opposition figures and analysts, there is a growing fear that Erdogan and his supporters will resort to violence to intimidate voters and challenge the election should the outcome not be in his favour.

The Turkish opposition, Turkey’s international partners and allies, and the even those in the president’s camp must be attuned to this possibility and strive for a peaceful and orderly election.

Erdogan, a master politician adept at winning elections, is leaving nothing to chance. He has poured public funds into various projects that he is unveiling every day. There was Turkey’s first electric car as well as Turkey’s first nuclear reactor, accompanied by a visit from Russian president Vladimir Putin.

There was an announcement that Turkey’s first astronauts will head into space this year. There have been new factories and new weapons projects and new giveaways, including a hike in minimum wages, a lowering of the retirement age and instances of loan forgiveness. All of it is loudly trumpeted by the media that has been under his control for years. He has continued to campaign aggressively, even as the 69-year-old fell ill and had to cancel all public appearances for several days.

But there are also signs that Erdogan or his allies are working on a nefarious plan B in case the populist giveaways and megaprojects fail to overcome persistent public dissatisfaction about the government’s economic mismanagement and handling of the country’s disastrous February earthquakes.

“I’m very worried about violence in this election,” says Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey analyst at the Project on Middle East Democracy. “But I’m especially worried about this on election day, because it could not only disrupt the voting process but also significantly compromise civic efforts to secure election integrity.”

Many in both the government and the opposition are urging calm and arguing that ultimately cooler heads will prevail. Within civil society, there are major efforts afoot to closely monitor ballot boxes to prevent any ambiguity or challenges. “I think things are going to be much calmer than expected,” predicts one analyst in touch with the leadership in Ankara.

But fear of violence is mounting. Neither supporters of America’s Donald Trump or Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro accepted election defeat without resorting to violence. Erdogan shares with those two men a similar right-wing populist politics and style.

“I worry more about violence after the election: because the results are viewed as illegitimate, or contested, or simply by supporters of the current government who believe any opposition is illegitimate,” says Howard Eissenstat, a professor specialising in Turkish politics and history at Saint Lawrence University. “We have seen some evidence of the last of these in videos posted by militant supporters, but it is difficult to assess how serious they are.”

Already there have been ominous incidents and threats, including shootings directed at the campaign offices of opposition parties and mobs menacing opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu at public events.

In a video that went viral, a leading member of Huda-Par, an Islamic fundamentalist group with roots in a violent outlawed extremist organisation that has closely allied with Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), threatened to “decapitate” Kilidaroglu rather than allow him to become president.

Turkey’s interior ministry is in charge of overseeing election security and is deploying tens of thousands of gendarmerie and other forces around the country to keep the peace before, during and after the vote. However, on Thursday, Erdogan’s interior minister himself, Suleyman Soylu, appeared to stir the pot by describing the 14 May elections as an attempt by the West to take over the country.

"May 14 is a political coup attempt by the West,” he said in comments to an Islamist organisation that he posted to his own Twitter account. “It is a coup attempt that can be initiated by bringing together each of the preparations to purge Turkey on May 14.”

The comment outraged observers and raised fears that government supporters were signalling a mobilisation ahead of a possible opposition election victory. During a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan, ordinary people poured into the streets to fight against soldiers attempting to take over key buildings.

“Team Erdogan is increasingly laying a rhetorical groundwork for dismissing the election outcome,” says Hetav Rojan, a professor at University College Copenhagen.

Kilicdaroglu demanded a halt to such “filthy discourse” and urged “common sense” and calm. “We are going to an election, not to a war,” he said in a post to his social media accounts. “We are sick and tired of your reckless polarisation of neighbourhoods and households. This hatred will absorb you first and then all of us."

Turkish elections and politics have long been marred by violence. In the June 2015 elections, Erdogan fared not as well as he would have liked, so he rejiggered the political process for another vote in November. In the interim, numerous terrorist incidents struck Turkey, and Erdogan’s prospects improved in the subsequent vote.

“The lesson of 2015 was that political violence works to Erdogan’s benefit,” says Selim Koru, a political analyst.

So far, the violence appears to be instigated by overzealous government supporters, with or without the quiet acquiescence of the government. The worry is that the violence could take on a top-down structure if the results favour the opposition.

Erdogan’s junior coalition partner, the National Movement Party, is notoriously an alleged instigator of politically motivated violence, including against its own members. A private security contractor called Sadat International Defence Consultancy with close ties to the government has also worried analysts.

“The AKP and MHP both have broad support within the security services and with paramilitary organisations like Sadat,” says Eissenstaat. “It all boils down to how the elections turns out and what Erdogan’s response to them might be.”

Adding to the tensions and dangers is the very real possibility of a 28 May second round between the two frontrunners. Emotions and rivalries on both sides may escalate during the two-week interim between two rounds.

“Do we expect violence? Yes,” says Rojan. “Turkish elections usually bring semi-organised violence at local levels in districts where demographics are mixed.”

Ultimately, Brazil and the US fended off challenges by incumbents who refused to accept the message of voters. But Turkey’s judiciary, security forces and media are thoroughly under the influence of Erdogan and his supporters. Were Erdogan or a surrogate to “pull a Trump” and call on supporters to challenge the results, Turkey has few of the institutional guardrails to counter it. The result could be disastrous, resulting in major social upheaval.