Donald Trump’s visit to the UK is a classic case of bad timing for Theresa May

When Theresa May became the first foreign leader to visit President Donald Trump last year, her “win” was not what her trip is most remembered for – her hasty invitation of a state visit and the cringeworthy hand-holding outside the White House. Her diplomatic coup, or so we were told at the time, was to persuade Trump to commit fully to the Nato alliance, even though he had dismissed it as “obsolete” on the campaign trail.

Typically, Trump’s warm words now look worthless. May and other Nato leaders began their summit in Brussels today not knowing whether an unpredictable, unreliable US president will merely lecture them on not spending enough on defence, or pull the plug on the alliance, wrecking its 70th birthday party next April.

In different times, America’s 28 allies would be less nervous. The irony is that Russia now poses a greater threat to them than for many years. Its neighbours wonder anxiously whether the US would honour Nato’s founding principle that an attack on one is an attack on all. Trump wants the G7 major economies to let Russia back into their club, another case of bad timing for May amid a murder inquiry following the Salisbury nerve agent attack universally blamed on Moscow.

Some US officials hint that Trump will not pull out of Nato because of the US’s treaty obligations; others suggest he still thinks it “obsolete”. Normally, international summits are choreographed in advance by “sherpas,” officials who prepare the ground. But Trump doesn’t do normal.

For May, Trump’s European tour is bad timing on several fronts. His visit to the UK starting tomorrow is awkwardly sandwiched between the Nato summit and his talks with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. Severely limiting his presence in London will not stop the protesters. The optics will not quite be what Trump had in mind when May dangled the prospect of a carriage ride up The Mall. To prevent embarrassment, a state visit had to be downgraded to a working one.

In keeping with his policy of insulting his hosts, as at last month’s G7 meeting in Quebec, Trump made British officials and ministers even more anxious yesterday by saying the UK is in “turmoil” over Brexit, and that he’s hoping to speak to his “friend” Boris Johnson during his visit. He also suggested his talks with Putin would be easier than those with May and Nato leaders, and described Germany as “a captive of the Russians” because of its reliance on energy supplies. Charming.

There’s even more bad timing for May. Normally, she and Trump would be able to talk up a UK-US trade deal as “very big and exciting” (guess who?). But a White Paper to be published on the day he arrives in the UK will admit May’s plan for a common rule book with the EU on goods and agri-foods, which would make a US trade agreement more difficult. While Downing Street is adamant that a deal can still be done, this will inevitably go down badly with Trump.

May should learn lessons from her White House visit, and resist the temptation to pretend everything in the garden is wonderful because of a “special relationship” long regarded in Washington as a strange British obsession they must play along with. UK officials twitched again when Trump hailed his “very special relationship” with Emmanuel Macron. Now they fear he might endorse the “real Brexit” favoured by his pal Boris rather than May’s “Brexit in name only,” as her Tory critics brand her blueprint.

May would win more respect at home by admitting differences with Trump and, like Angela Merkel, sticking up for the values he cares nothing for. The prime minister would be wise not to rely on a US trade deal; “Australia and New Zealand first” would be more realistic. Trump is another reason why May must prevent a “no deal” departure from the EU next March.

While some hardline Brexiteers would privately prefer the UK to crash out and rely on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, some European countries fear the tariffs he has imposed on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico are a first step towards killing off the WTO. Trump’s distaste for multilateral agreements has been shown by his walking out of the Paris climate change agreement and Iran nuclear deals.

May should politely keep her distance from Trump rather than cosying up and trying to resuscitate an ailing special relationship. May should acknowledge the logic of her own White Paper: in the Trump era, the UK national interest lies in the closest possible links on both trade and security with its European neighbours. The history books will surely note this supreme irony of Brexit.