Trump second anniversary: If you thought the first two years were crazy, then you’d better buckle up

A year later, there has been no official word on how Trump will mark the occasion, if at all. Holed up inside the White House as the partial government shutdown approaches its fifth week, the president may decide to keep things low key.

One thing we can be sure of is that as Trump embarks on the second half of his term – he was inaugurated at noon EST on 20 January 2017 in a ceremony in which he delivered a bellicose address vowing to end “this American carnage” – it will be anything but low key.

With so many challenges confronting him, so many pitfalls to face, and so much likelihood he will be pressured in a way he does not like, we can expect two years of hard fighting and ugliness from the White House. If these first two years appeared chaotic, then it would make sense to buckle up.

“We have had divided government before, but I don’t think we have ever had such divisive government,” said Jeanne Zaino, professor of political science at Iona College in New York. “People are not talking to the other side, and this is playing out in public.”

She said if Trump finds himself with his back to the wall as a result of the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller, which inches ever nearer to the Oval Office, things “will get very ugly”. “If we think things have been divisive over the government shutdown, that will look like child’s play.”

The investigation by Mueller, himself a former FBI director, has so far resulted in indictments against at least 33 people and three companies. Five former associates of Trump, including his former campaign manager, have pleaded guilty to a variety of crimes, and the 74-year-old has not finished yet. It is known he is considering not just whether Russia tried to interfere in the 2016 election and if there was collusion with the Trump campaign, but also whether the president obstructed justice. Prosecutors are also said to be looking into the Trump Organisation and any role it played.

Trump and his legal team have always dismissed the probe as a witch hunt and denied any collusion. But this week saw two interesting developments: a vow from Trump’s new pick for attorney general, William Barr, that he will let the Muller investigation be completed, and an apparent admission from Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani – “clarified” the following day – that somebody in the campaign may have colluded with Moscow.

“I never said there was no collusion between the campaign or between people in the campaign,” he told CNN. He added: “I said the president of the United States. There is not a single bit of evidence the president of the United States committed the only crime you could commit here, conspired with the Russians.”

Two other things are going to further unsettle the president. One is the fact that the Democrats now control the House of Representatives and everything that means.

With Democrats now crucially charing various oversight committees, they can hold hearings, demand documents and subpoena witnesses. Trump will not like it one little bit if Ivanka Trump or Jared Kushner are subpoenaed by the likes of congressman Adam Schiff, and demanded to explain various aspects of the administration.

Of course, the House is also where any impeachment proceedings against Trump would begin. For now, speaker Nancy Pelosi has barely mentioned that potential weapon, skillfully allowing Trump to stew as the shutdown drags on and he remains no nearer getting his border wall. (She also knows that the Republicans’ 1998 impeachment of Bill Clinton backfired electorally.)

But if Mueller comes back with something really damaging on Trump, it may be Pelosi is unable, or does not wish to, hold off going down that route. One can only imagine the noise Trump and his supporters would make, if impeachment proceedings were filed.

Kathleen Clark, professor of law at Washington University in St Louis, said Mueller has revealed more and more on the behaviour of those close to Trump by filing so-called “talking indictments”, that include details about their alleged offences, and not simply the charge themselves.

She wondered whether Mueller’s probe will reveal more about Trump’s business dealings, an area he has always claimed is off limits. Will he reveal the president of the United States owes money to powerful Russians, she asked? “We don’t know how money Trump owes, or who he owes it to.”

The final factor that will trigger reverberations from the White House is the 2020 election. With senator Elizabeth Warren formally entering the race on New Year’s Eve, the battle for the White House essentially got under way.

Since then, a handful of other candidates – Kirsten Gillibrand, Juan Castro and Tulsi Gabbard – have also declared, and many more are expected to follow. Depending on whom the Democrats pick, Trump can expect a tough challenge, and a hard-fought campaign. Incumbent presidents usually win a second term – George HW Bush was the last single-term commander-in-chief – but nothing is certain.

But if Trump fights the 2020 campaign as he did the one in 2016, we can expect it to be unpleasant, toxic and ill tempered. The name-calling he deployed against people such as Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz will be the least of it.

Instead, we can expect the kind of racist and xenophobic language that Trump knows appeals to part of his base, and puts off others from voting. The challenge for whoever is the Democratic challenger will be not to get tarred with the same negativity.

“When you get into the mud with somebody [there’s always that danger],” said Christina Greer, associate professor of political science at Fordham University in New York.

The first two years of Trump’s presidency have rushed past. Given the pace of developments, and allegations, and the president’s tactic of seeking to control the news agenda by constantly making headlines, it has been nothing less than exhausting. The next two years will only be worse.