A Trump presidency won’t necessarily be the gift for Putin that Moscow thinks it is...

Washington has provided more than $64bn (£50bn) in military aid for Ukraine – far in excess of any of Kyiv’s other allies in the West. While Europe’s help is needed and appreciated, it is the US that is the driving force for Ukraine’s defence against Russia. It is a key pillar that Ukraine hopes will not crumble.

Yet new president Donald Trump has been clear that he believes the US is spending too much on non-American interests. While support will continue until January at least, when Trump takes office in the White House, Kyiv will be fearful of that source of money being halted, given the brutal state of the front line in many areas of Ukraine – and with Russia making slow but steady advances in the eastern region of Donetsk.

There are a few billion dollars left in the funds Joe Biden can call upon under presidential drawdown authority to help Ukraine – drawing weapons from US stocks – and he may seek to deplete that source before he leaves office. But then it will be down to Trump, and a Congress that his Republican Party is likely to control, to sign off on support for Kyiv.

Pressure would quickly be piled on Ukraine’s outmanned and outgunned troops on the front line – and an increase in casualties would follow. Europe has been ramping up artillery production, while Ukraine is putting as much effort as it can into increasing its own weapons manufacturing – but the loss of US funding, or even a drop in it, would leave a massive hole.

There was a months-long hold-up in Congress over tens of billions of dollars of funding, which lasted from October 2023 to March 2024, with Trump-supporting legislators at the heart of the dispute. Kyiv was forced into using more of its wartime budget to try to keep its troops supplied.

Soldiers on the front line spoke of shortages, particularly of artillery, and pleaded for US help. Others made clear how many of their fellow troops were dying under heavy fire from Vladimir Putin’s forces. Given the increased pressure Ukraine’s forces are currently under, as Moscow seeks to press home its advances in recent months – with thousands of North Korean soldiers also bolstering Russian ranks – another such delay would have serious consequences.

“I hope that the quantity of weapons, the quantity of guns for our victory will increase,” a commander of an artillery unit in eastern Ukraine, who goes by the name Mozart, told reporters in the hours before Trump’s win was confirmed. “We don’t care who is the president, as long as they don’t cut us off from help, because we need it.”

Trump has described Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, as “the greatest salesman on Earth” for securing US aid, and recently blamed both the Ukrainian leader and Biden for letting the war start – despite Putin being the one to invade. Trump has often touted his good relationship with Putin, calling him “pretty smart” and “streetwise” for going into Ukraine.

Zelensky knows that constant pleas for help won’t work with Trump. He has to be pragmatic and play to the president elect’s vanity. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together,” he wrote in a message on the social platform X, formerly Twitter. Trump has said repeatedly that he would have a peace deal done between Ukraine and Russia within a day if elected, although he has not said how.

The fear in Kyiv will be that a rush to get a peace deal in place would mean Ukraine being forced into giving up territory currently occupied by Russia – something Zelensky has consistently said his nation will not accept. Zelensky will know he needs to keep in Trump’s ear, so expect the X posts to continue, alongside the work in the background.

The Kremlin has been cautious in its response to Trump’s win so far. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the president elect had made some important statements during his campaign about wanting to end the Ukraine war, but only time would tell if they would lead to action. “Let us not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country, which is both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state,” Peskov told reporters. Although Putin will no doubt be happier with Trump in the White House than if Kamala Harris had won.

But Trump’s push for a quick end to the war might not be the gift the Kremlin will want it to be. Putin’s railing against the West has framed the US and its allies as an existential threat to Russia, and one that cannot be resolved. There is a risk, in coming to the table, of undermining that. It is also clear, given that Putin aimed at Kyiv at the beginning of the war, that he wants the whole of Ukraine – and he will not want a deal while Russia is edging forwards, or if he thinks US support for Kyiv is likely to slip.

The primary trade of both Putin and Trump is bombastic rhetoric. It is obvious what Trump gains from brokering an end to the war in Ukraine – but will he actually have the will to try and see it through? For Zelensky, it is about the survival of his nation. The end of military aid from Washington will see a high price paid, in both soldiers and (probably) territory. It is something he and the world can ill afford.

Ukraine’s president, and his European allies, will have to convince Trump of the same.