By effectively threatening to invade a Nato nation – and steal it – Trump has done Europe a favour

Europe’s leaders are peeping through their fingers, hiding behind the sofa and whimpering with “incomprehension” after a real-world Dr Strangelove hinted that he might invade an ally once he’s in the White House.

In matters of war in Europe, rhetoric so often becomes reality. Vladimir Putin coveted chunks of Georgia and all of Ukraine. He said so. Then he invaded.

This week, president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out using economic or military force to seize the Panama Canal and (or) wrestle Greenland away from Denmark.

Denmark is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). Article five of Nato’s founding document says all of its members are obliged to come to the aid of any of its members. So, Trump has effectively refused to rule out war with Nato over Greenland. Yet America has Nato’s biggest army, most nuclear weapons and spends more on defence than any other Nato member.

Some of the power of the incoming 47th president of the United States lies in his unpredictability – his enemies recognise that he might be crazy enough to do the crazy stuff he says he’ll do. America’s friends, though, are in dangerous denial.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz, who canvassed the views of several other European leaders and the president of the European Council, admitted that “a certain incomprehension became clear regarding current comments from the US”.

But “incomprehension” is wilfully weak as a response.

Scholz said: “The principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country, regardless of whether it lies to the east of us or the west, and every state must keep to it, regardless of whether it is a small country or a very powerful state.” But he didn’t have the nerve to say he was actually talking about Trump.

Trump, however, is crystal clear on how he sees Nato. He thinks the US spends too much protecting Europeans who bleat on about how they fear Putin but won’t stump up the cost of protecting themselves.

He wants Nato members to up their defence spending from the two per cent minimum Nato target (that many members fail to hit) to five per cent of GDP.

Combine Trump’s designs on Greenland with his remarkable admiration of Putin – who, he’s indicated, was essentially provoked into war by Ukraine’s overtures to Nato – and you have a dangerous fever dream that infects Trump’s reality.

Add that to the fact that his buddy Elon Musk has sympathy for fascist groups in Europe and the leaders of the European continent must comprehend that, whatever happens from 20 January this year when Trump is inaugurated, they will have no friends in the Oval Office.

Musk will soon be the joint head of the Trump administration’s new Department for Government Efficiency, so he’ll be firmly inside the presidential tent. He’s already called for the overthrow of Britain’s prime minister, demanded the release of Tommy Robinson (the far-right activist jailed for contempt of court) and supports Germany’s far-right AfD party.

This all adds up to a very clear truth that Europe’s leaders must face when they crawl out from behind the sofa.

America, under Trump, doesn’t care about Europe. Meanwhile, Musk hasn’t called for China to stop persecuting Uyghurs. He has, reportedly, been in regular contact with the Russian president since 2022, when Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So, the Trump administration will be soft on democracy and mad keen on dictatorships.

The world’s most powerful man – and other wealthy figures such as Musk – do not represent the modern values that have kept western Europe safe.

Continued security for the West will, as Trump points out, depend on Nato’s European nations paying to protect the democracies they all hold so dear. That means at least five per cent of GDP on the military. That will mean higher taxes and an end to a complacent sense of superiority over future challengers from China, India, or anywhere else.

By effectively threatening to invade a Nato nation – and steal it – Trump has done Europe a favour. He’s shown that Europe must stand aside from America and be able to stand alone in its own defence. Nato members have to pay their way – not to defend Greenland, but to be able to defend everything Europe now stands for.

Europe’s leaders have to stop showing “incomprehension” and shaking their heads with sad dismay. Trump’s showing them you don’t have to be bonkers – but you do have to be bold.