After Maga, will Trump now spark ‘Mega’… and Make Europe Great Again?
If the roll-call of hard-right European politicians at the US president’s inauguration was anything to go by, we are about to find out quite how far his sphere of influence reaches, says Mary Dejevsky
The inauguration of Donald Trump gave every appearance of ushering in a new special relationship – and not the one between the returning US president and the British prime minister.
Rather, all eyes were on the political bromances blossoming between Trump and select foreign dignitaries, among them Britons and Europeans, from a variegated spectrum of the political right.
The presence of highly placed foreign guests marked a bit of a departure in itself. Unlike state funerals, inaugurations have been traditionally treated as primarily domestic events. There also seemed little consistency, ideologically or institutionally, about precisely who received an invitation, but nationalist, far-right groups within the European Parliament were well represented.
As is Trump’s wont, the selection seemed rather to reflect his personal likes and dislikes, and his sense perhaps of future usefulness, more than any protocol. Seated next to president Javier Milei from Argentina was Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who appears to have become one of Trump’s new best friends.
Notable absentees included the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, who may or may not have been invited. Leaders of another of Europe’s most successful far-right parties, the National Rally of France, were left out.
If France’s National Rally was cold-shouldered, the French right’s more maverick crowd-pleaser, Eric Zemmour, came; Alice Weidel, the leader of Germany’s populist right Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) was invited, but sent her co-leader, Tino Chrupalla instead, citing the demands of next month’s election.
You could be forgiven for thinking that Trump’s inauguration was not only a victory lap for the Maga movement, but also for “Mega” – those now wanting to Make Europe Great Again.
Certainly, the EU’s top representatives – notably president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council president Antonio Costa and the commission’s foreign affairs representative Kaja Kallas – were conspicuous by their absence. Instead, the Capitol was awash with right-wing populists and far-right politicians from across the continent.
There was also a sizeable contingent from the UK, which included past prime ministers, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss; former home secretary Suella Braverman, and officially representing the Conservative Party, the shadow foreign secretary, Priti Patel.
Long-standing Trump associate and Reform UK party leader, Nigel Farage, was also there, but – to his pique, and unlike Johnson – was not granted a seat in the Capitol’s rotunda for the actual ceremony. Did protocol play a role here, with Johnson as a past prime minister taking precedence – or might Trump have been signalling something about who he bets will one day steer the political right in the UK? Having been disparaged by “first buddy” Elon Musk, does the Clacton MP no longer occupy the same place in the Trump court as he once seemed to do?
There could be a less malign interpretation of Trump’s interest in the international, and especially the European, right – less malign, that is, in Trump’s view. Might it not be that he sees his own brand of populist nationalism – for that is surely what his thinking boils down to – as the answer to everyone’s ills, and especially to the ills of Europe?
If only Europe’s attitudes and approach were more like those of Meloni, he might be musing, then the whole continent would be a happier, more prosperous place. In Washington’s view, it would also make it a better ally.
There is, though, yet another possibility that may already be happening, even without any particular attention from Trump, or any invitations to his inauguration. And this is that the hardline messages he pumped out during his election campaign has been heard, and appreciated, by a growing number of voters in Europe.
Hard-right parties are already in power across much of the continent, and last year’s elections to the European Parliament marked a shift to the right. This success has been ascribed to the same voter distrust of government, the same hostility to more immigration, the same aversion to fighting foreign wars, and the same suspicion that “net zero” is a luxury they cannot afford, that helped return Trump to the White House.
The feeling that real, day-to-day concerns are simply not being addressed makes up a large part of AfD’s campaign pitch for German votes. As for the UK, you needed only to sample radio phone-ins over the past 24 hours to realise how effectively Trump’s hard line has resonated here.
From here, there are two ways that this growing “Mega” movement could go. The first is that Trump will fail in most of his objectives, thwarted, as in his first term, by court judgments (on migrants’ rights, say, or opening new oilfields); by public resistance (for instance, to harsh detention conditions for migrants); or by forces beyond his control (such as new foreign wars). When Americans fail to feel better off, their trust in government will sink even lower. Trumpism will not outlast Trump.
But what if Trump succeeds – or succeeds enough? If his policies have the effect of curbing migration, of lowering energy prices (even at the cost of the environment) and of creating well-paid jobs? And if that were to entail changes at the European Court of Human Rights, a dilution of climate policies, and a crescendo of tub-thumping nationalism?
Well, then, those who stand for Europe’s brand of liberalism as it has evolved over 80 years had better start reinforcing their defences now.
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