Why Republicans are standing by Trump, even after the FBI raid

On Monday evening, the former US president Donald Trump claimed that the FBI had executed a search warrant on his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. Almost immediately, the Republican establishment coalesced around him.

Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator who once called Trump a “jackass” and a “race-baiting, xenophobic religious bigot”, tweeted that an investigation of Trump is “beyond problematic” because it comes just 100 days before an election. That’s a strange line of argument, considering the former president is not a candidate for any office this year.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – who, during the 6 January riot at the US Capitol yelled down the phone at Mr Trump and asked the then-president, “Who the f**k do you think you are talking to?” – called the search “an intolerable state of weaponised politicisation”. Mr McCarthy then pledged that the Republican majority widely anticipated to take control of the House next year would “conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts, and leave no stone unturned”.

Senator Marco Rubio – who, as a 2016 presidential candidate, called Trump someone “who’s basically encouraged the people in the audience to rough up anyone who stands up and says something he doesn’t like” – tweeted a tirade about the search in his home state, calling it “something we have seen many times from third-world Marxist dictatorships”.

Were the GOP a normal political party, these men would likely see federal agents searching a former president’s home as an opportune time to get off the Trump train. But given they did not draw the line at his inciting a literal violent riot at the US Capitol and subsequently showing no contrition, it’s no surprise they’re standing by him in the face of a visit by the FBI.

In fact, just as the news was boiling over, Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the insurrection, started to fall behind Trump-endorsed primary challenger Joe Kent in Washington state’s 3rd district. The election happened last week but results are still coming in – and Mr Kent has now pulled decisively ahead.

It was in fact Ms Herrera Beutler who revealed the damning contents of that 6 January phone call between Mr Trump and Mr McCarthy. In her speech supporting Mr Trump’s impeachment, Ms Herrera Beutler explained that “the president initially repeated the falsehood that it was antifa that had breached the Capitol”.

The Washington congresswoman’s likely downfall comes a week after Michigan representative Peter Meijer – another Republican who voted to impeach the former president – lost his primary to Trump-endorsed John Gibbs. The Democrats’ Congressional campaign operation had run ads flattering the extreme Mr Gibbs in the primary in hopes of securing a more beatable opponent. Mr Meijer even introduced Mr Gibbs at a “unity” event. It was a strategy that left a sour taste in the mouths of Democrats across the spectrum – from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Abigail Spanberger.

It’s worth bearing in mind that Democrats’ efforts to boost right-wing MAGA candidates in Republican primaries would not work if Republican voters didn’t like what they were selling.

Mr Meijer’s loss comes ahead of Representative Liz Cheney’s primary for the GOP nomination to run in Wyoming’s sole Congressional district. For all that she has proven to be a monster fundraiser, Ms Cheney looks likely to lose next week to Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman.

In June, meanwhile, Representative Tom Rice of South Carolina lost his primary to Russell Fry, whom Mr Trump supported. David Valadao of California won his primary, too – though he still could lose his race in the general election, given that he is running against a strong Democratic candidate.

These losses do not even account for the retirements of pro-impeachment Republicans including Fred Upton of Michigan, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio and John Katko of New York. As Dave Wasserman from the Cook Political Report has observed, it is entirely possible that after the midterms, Representative Dan Newhouse, who won his primary in Washington, will be the only pro-impeachment Republican congressman left standing.

Meanwhile, the GOP seems ready to stand by Trump – even as the walls close in.

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