If the economy tanks under Trump, prepare for the scariest election of your life in 2020

Since the beginning of his 2016 election campaign, President Trump has been disturbingly willing to capitalise on bigotry and fear for political gain. But if a recession hits before the 2020 election, I fear his twisted rhetoric will only get worse.

The notion that the economy is “booming” has long afforded Trump a significant, if reluctant, base of support beyond southern border wall fanatics. This is despite the fact that the national debt has increased substantially under Trump and his irresponsible, ineffective tariffs are almost impossible to reconcile with his free-market principles. Yet Trump’s Republican affiliation gives him a free pass to claim the mantle of fiscal conservatism, which many Americans associate with economic competence, making him a relatively popular choice beyond his MAGA base.

Trump has also taken great pride in the strong stock market throughout his presidency, frequently tweeting about the mainstream media’s refusal to give him credit for his economic accomplishments. His pride isn’t entirely misplaced – from a macroeconomic perspective, the economy has been relatively stable and robust for the last few years. This success gives Americans repulsed by his rhetoric and social policies an excuse to support him, at least conditionally. The president may be a buffoon in their eyes, but at least they can keep more money in their pockets and feel secure in their economic future.

Yet as financial institutions begin to warn of a recession on the horizon, it becomes more realistic that Trump might lose the only leg he has to stand on. Sure, recessions often take a while to fully materialize and this one might well come after the 2020 election. But anxiety around a potential recession could shrink spending and investment and speed up the process. With history as a guide, we know the administration’s trade war could lengthen and exacerbate the potential downturn.

But if there is a recession by 2020, how will Trump’s election strategy change?

It is extremely likely that “Recession Trump” will double down on social divisions and identity issues during his second presidential campaign. His 2016 campaign already spoke to primarily white people who felt threatened by the rapid pace of change in modern America and wanted to return to a nostalgic, abstract ideal of American greatness. An even greater sense of insecurity spurred by an economic recession might spur a demand for the president to protect his devoted constituents from any threats they perceive to their socioeconomic stability.

Trump’s nationalism has often taken on an “us-versus-them” character within the US rather than abroad. Instead of bashing authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un to arouse patriotism, he designates domestic enemies of the people, like the “fake news media,” “radical socialist” Democrats and illegal immigrants who he claims are stealing Americans’ jobs and benefits.

As Trump looks for somewhere to throw the blame for the recession beyond himself, he will likely stoke fear about these groups, among others. He will divert attention from his fiscal pitfalls by claiming that the Democratic candidate wants to keep America in the recession by implementing full-blown socialism and importing millions of immigrants and refugees to drain the country’s resources.

This pre-election project has already begun with an attack on a theoretically apolitical institution: the Federal Reserve. Days after the recession prediction dropped, Trump tweeted about the “horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed.” There is no reason for Trump to insult the whole institution now other than to set up an early defense against allegations that he incited the recession.

You might be frightened of what our nation’s political discourse will regress into during a recession – I certainly am. But even in the face of fear, we need to tell our own stories – stories about the many ways immigrants have enriched our lives, the ways that media and technology have provided us with unprecedented knowledge and understanding. With a recession on the horizon and a president more incentivised than ever to attack and lie, we must seek the truth among the madness.