Why do voters cling to this Conservative government, despite its handling of the pandemic?

You might assume that the government of a country with the sixth highest rate of Covid deaths in the world would be set to falter – even if it had won a landslide majority a little over a year ago.

Yet many of those who voted for the Conservatives in the 2019 general election evidently assume otherwise, for just 11 per cent of them attribute responsibility for the recent spike in Covid-19 cases to the government. Seventy-two per cent believe it is the fault of the public. 

Why are voters sticking so resolutely to the Conservatives while the country has a death toll of more than 60,000?  

Conservatism is underpinned by individuality and ensuring the government doesn’t have too much of a hand in our day to day lives. To some, this is simply the foundation of meritocracy; it ensures that everyone works hard for what they get. To others, this is a cold, unsupportive way of ensuring those born into privilege are the only ones who can prosper.  

We see conservatism not only in the implementation of pandemic restrictions, but with rulings in a variety of policy areas. Conservative MP Angela Richardson illustrated this during a talk earlier this year. When asked what she would do to support the thousands of students she represents, many of whom complain about unaffordable rents in the Surrey town of Guildford, she told me: “It’s not a Conservative thing to do to interfere in the rent.” Remove “in the rent” and the general policy approach of the leading party is revealed.  

So we begin to see why the sort of politics that ensured a quick recovery from Covid-19 – such as those of New Zealand’s government, which implemented strict restrictions early on in the pandemic – were rejected by the Conservatives.  

Instead, those who prescribe to the Conservative ideology – both politicians and voters – stalled and screamed for the right to do as they pleased. This led to the need for U-turns and whiplash-inducing, short-notice lockdowns.  

And even when we know that implementing the first “stay at home” message just one week earlier could have saved more than 20,000 lives, the hands-off approach is still statistically supported by those who brought about a Conservative landslide in 2019. Conservative voters are still most likely to oppose total lockdowns.  

The government didn’t do anything wrong, according to Conservative voters, because they believe doing nothing is the correct course of action. It is arguably this “nothing” that has caused our death rate to soar, that has allowed our country to become world-leading in case rates, and that has left us in a position where more than 40 countries have closed their borders to the UK.

Support for the government, despite the death tolls and case rates, continues. Voting intention polls from Savanta Comres, Statistica, and Survation all place the Conservatives in the lead. 

This die-hard loyalty from Conservative voters is unchallenged even by previously unthinkable circumstances. Voters siding with individualism will simply blame rising case rates on those who cannot work from home, rather than a government which leaves new measures to the last minute.  

So the answer to the question – why is the Conservative Party still ahead in the polls, despite its handling of the pandemic – is that, actually, Conservative voters believe the government is doing the right thing.  

Hands-off, they say, is the best approach. Hands-off, despite evidence from other countries that strict government intervention is more successful in containing Covid-19.  

So death rates soar, case rates soar, and other areas of policy, where people are begging their government to help, are ignored. And yet all the polls tell us that, come the next general election, whenever that might be, the Conservatives will win handsomely again. Baffling but entirely predictable.