The seven Tory women battling it out to succeed Rishi Sunak

The incredible and fascinating thing about the next leader of the Conservative Party is that it’s not just almost certain to be a woman (they’ve had three of those already, of course) but that there’s also a fair chance of it being a woman of colour – another first for them, and indeed for British politics. It is historic and good for Britain, at least in that respect.

In rough order of probability, the contestants already out on manoeuvres are: Kemi Badenoch; Penny Mordaunt; Suella Braverman; Priti Patel; Clare Coutinho, Gillian Keegan and, unbelievable as it may be, Liz Truss. Seven brides for a lonely party, you might say. They would make an interesting contrast to prime minister Keir Starmer, male and stale. Could it happen? Assuredly.

Because they made quite successful runs for the leadership last year, the ambitions of Mordaunt and Badenoch are well-known, and could be counted automatic entrants. Indeed, were it not for a considerable exercise of self-restraint and concern for the damage a protracted campaign would inflict on the the health of the party and the country, Mordaunt would almost certainly be PM now.

She finished as runner-up to Sunak in the MPs ballot, when she might well have scooped the members’ vote in the final ballot – but it would have prolonged the chaos. She should have been rewarded with a more senior role by Sunak when he became premier, but that’s another story. She’s written a book setting out her vision, Greater, she boasts a family background in the Royal Navy – and she’s a more than capable performer at the despatch box.

Mordaunt would find herself up against Badenoch, again (Badenoch finished fourth in the first of last year’s two contests), who has the advantage of being much more socially conservative than Mordaunt. Badenoch is currently minister for equalities – and never misses a chance to rubbish the “woke agenda” and express trans-sceptic sentiments.

It may not sound much to most people, but Mordaunt, too, was once equalities minister and declared in parliament a few years ago, in her straightforward way, that “trans men are men, trans women are women” at the launch of a consultation on reforming the Gender Recognition Act. That doesn’t reflect the current mood of the grassroots.

More recently, Mordaunt tweeted: “I am biologically a woman. If I have a hysterectomy or mastectomy, I am still a woman. And I am legally a woman. Some people born male and who have been through the gender recognition process are also legally female. That DOES NOT mean they are biological women, like me.”

We may expect much more of this sort of thing if we end up with a Mordaunt v Badenoch “final” around this time next year. They’re both popular with the base, and Badenoch has the double-edged backing of Michael Gove.

Suella Braverman has seen her ratings with activists decline over the past year, which can only be explained by her abject failure to “stop the boats” or deport a single refugee to Rwanda. Her rhetoric far outweighs her actual achievements.

To make up for that, she’s the most energetic of the shadow campaigners to succeed Sunak and may be a bit too obvious about it.

Her speech to the American Enterprise Institute was designed to be as controversial and attention-grabbing as it turned out to be. Her instinct is to tell the membership what they want to hear, such as the dangerous idea that “multiculturalism has failed”, but she might be overdoing things.

Her confidante and mentor, Sir John Hayes, is a man of unusually stern rightist opinions, and not that representative of the parliamentary party – even these days.

To get to be leader, you do need to get to the final two and on to the final ballot paper and Braverman doesn’t have that much of a following there, despite (or rather because of) being a one-time deputy leader of the nihilistic European Research Group.

The Tory party is capable of springing surprises in its leaders, indeed normally does – Margaret Thatcher, John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, David Cameron and Sunak were all unexpected winners.

So, one of Coutinho, Keegan and Truss might end up as the next leader of the opposition, but all have their flaws. Coutinho is the least experienced and youngest, and her “meat tax” interview with Sophy Ridge was so excruciating it must disqualify her in the short run.

Keegan has probably been fitted with concrete boots by the RAAC scandal, and her hot mic Marie Antoinette moment, asking for thanks made her look entitled. Truss’ record speaks for itself. She’s making some progress with persuading the membership that she’s the victim of a conspiracy, and some still resent her being forced out last year; but her fellow MPs know better than to go through another mini budget-syle debacle.

I haven’t mentioned the two most capable blokes because they don’t feel likely: James Cleverly is well-liked, but you don’t get the impression he’s gagging to be Leader of the opposition (LOTO).

Which leaves Boris Johnson, who at first glance could beat any and all rivals. Yet he is disgraced, he is yesterday’s man; his close personal association with a Brexit isn’t an asset with the voters any longer – and unless he somehow gets to be an MP again, he won’t be eligible. Besides, the women are better. It seems entirely fitting for such a chauvinist that he should be overshadowed by a younger, smarter female. Another good reason for the party to move forward with a fresher female face.