I know who should win the Conservative leadership contest… and who actually will

Having watched the Tory leadership beauty parade in Birmingham this week, it is now clear to me which of the four candidates are likeliest to go through to the final round: James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch.

Whether either will is in the lap of the gods – if that’s not too grand a description of the Conservatives’ depleted parliamentary benches. And despite two candidates’ pitches falling resoundingly flat in the conference hall, the question of who will be crowned Tory leader on 2 November remains up in the air.

Judging from his Wednesday performance alone, the rightful outright winner ought to be Cleverly, but the final could well be Badenoch vs Robert Jenrick; on current polling, Tom Tugendhat is now out, his performance having been underwhelming.

It is the element of “unknown unknowns” that means many Conservatives are watching this process with trepidation. Whether it is possible for the party to claw its way back from the brink relies on picking a winner. “Anyone but the Tories” was the resoundingly clear message from the electorate.

Following weeks of Labour’s self-imposed wounds, which have seen Keir Starmer’s popularity tumble and facing a volatile electorate, the mood at Tory conference was more upbeat than they had any right to expect. Hope is a great galvaniser.

This bounce in optimism is likely to be short-lived, however; reality will soon hit. In recent polling by More in Common, when asked to describe the Conservative Party,  the three most common answers were “corrupt, rubbish and incompetent”. And unlike the 1997 Labour landslide, there is far less room for them to manoeuvre. Returning to a respected political force is a must for survival, never mind winning the next election.

Sure, if our new chancellor Rachel Reeves doles out more pain in the forthcoming Budget, that will help the Conservative cause a little. And winning back seats in the local elections next spring will add momentum, as seat by seat is how you row back when you’ve been swept out to sea. Just look at the rebirth of the Liberal Democrats.

What everyone in Birmingham agreed with this week was that none of the leadership candidates singularly possesses what David Cameron showed up with in 2005 – boundless energy, confidence, the ability to deliver a tough “change” message. But these are different times, and it was Cleverly who came away from the Wednesday four-way having come to the right analysis about first steps – zeroing in on Cameron-style likeability and optimism. As one of his team confided: “We set ourselves up as being the most experienced, polished and reasonable choice that won’t repulse voters.”

Cleverly is the party’s Mr Nice Guy, and this week played that card deftly, receiving the longest standing ovation of any hopeful on Wednesday. “Let’s talk up the benefits of conservatism with a smile” is a key line in his Reagan-styled positivism, as he urged others to ape him, a relatable lad from Lewisham, and appear “normal”. He understands how low the reputation of the Conservatives has fallen, and the advantage that lies for him in the dreary persona of Keir Starmer.

Badenoch, meanwhile, focused again on analysing where the Conservative principles went walkabout. Repeating the words of her GP father, she reasoned: “If you get the diagnosis wrong, you won’t get the treatment right.” She’s not wrong to dig into the root of policy problems, rather than jumping to crowd-pleasing announcements, such as axing stamp duty.

Yet, despite her confident, smiling performance – and I personally support her a lot – it’s too easy to get lost in the complexity of what she is trying to say. Post-analysis from Tory insiders still reveals doubts: “I want to believe, but something is holding me back,” said one. Another has been confused “by her giant inquiry into everything the state does. That sounds like a bear trap to me”.

A little more surprising was that, for all his slick professionalism to date, Jenrick flopped. Tellingly, his main message on plunging the party straight into a battle over leaving the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) didn’t rouse the expected cheers of enthusiasm, and he bet big on this as his key unifying call. He’s read the mood music wrong – even Conservatives know battling a convention few in the wider population understand is the wrong way to win back popularity.

For members, his campaign video – which not only featured footage of an SAS soldier whom Tom Tugendhat has served alongside in Afghanistan before his death, but also the claim that the ECHR is forcing service personnel into “killing rather than capturing” terrorists – was a damaging gaffe. As was getting the wrong date for when Margaret Thatcher became leader.

James Cleverly, who started the week in either third or fourth place, ends it as the winner in waiting. And, though nothing is predictable in politics, I suspect, if he can get through to the members’ vote, which is the final decider, he will triumph – if only because, as he himself has proclaimed, “I am relatable.”

There are only 121 Tory MPs in the parliamentary party, who will next week decide on the final two, which allows factions to switch loyalty and manipulate votes. But I’ll speculate they also drift to a similar conclusion: better a safe bet who can start the return journey from day one than risk a leader who could plunge them further into obscurity.