It’s not just Labour that is dithering over an early election – not all Tories want one either

Boris Johnson has died in his metaphorical ditch.

But he hoped no one would notice the government’s admission that he would break his promise to lead the UK out of the EU by 31 October. So he let off a giant firework display at the same time by proposing a general election on 12 December.

Team Boris calculated that the SNP and Liberal Democrats would take the bait, putting enormous pressure on Labour to follow suit. Johnson needs the votes of almost 150 opposition MPs to secure the 434 votes required by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act to trigger an election.

But the SNP and Lib Dems refused to bite. Labour, characteristically, is sitting on the fence, but will probably join the other opposition parties in declining to back an early poll.

Johnson tried to tempt Jeremy Corbyn with the carrot of an election after Brexit, if the opposition agreed a timetable to push through the bill implementing his deal by 6 November. The offer of a week’s extra time was not as generous as it looked; the complex agreement deserves more scrutiny.

Although Team Boris doesn’t admit it, I’m sure it would prefer an election before Brexit. Even if Corbyn had accepted his offer, Johnson could have pulled the Withdrawal Agreement Bill before the election if MPs passed unpalatable amendments such as a customs union. A pre-Brexit poll would allow him to run his “parliament versus the people” narrative; if his motion proposing an election is lost on Monday, that will provide the latest instalment.

Johnson’s allies are confident he will largely escape blame among Leave voters for the delay to Brexit. Their focus groups do not pick up much evidence that Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party would benefit, since most voters would blame parliament.

But with a deal secured, it is hard to argue that an election is in the national interest. That’s not the same as the Tories’ interest.

Although some cabinet ministers would prefer to plough on with the bill and bank on a delayed electoral reward for “getting Brexit done”, Johnson knows that voters do not always say thank you. After all, his hero Winston Churchill won the war and lost the 1945 election – on the issues of public services and equality that Corbyn would love the next one to be about.

Corbyn has a huge dilemma. I believe he genuinely wants an election, and believes he can recreate the magic of his 2017 campaign, which also began with the party trailing in the opinion polls. But many of his MPs fear a crushing defeat in a Brexit-dominated contest, and could advertise Labour’s deep split by voting against an election if they are whipped to support one. The nervousness about an early election is shared by several shadow cabinet ministers including John McDonnell, who will head Labour’s election campaign when it comes.

Labour is a very unhappy ship. The split over election timing runs along familiar lines and is replicated on other issues. Corbyn’s shrinking band of brothers such as Jon Trickett, Richard Burgon and Ian Lavery publicly back an early election, reflecting Corbyn’s personal view. Others are more cautious. Labour’s problem, of course, is that it cannot argue an election would be a bad thing because it would lose it.

The rebellion by his MPs probably means Corbyn will oppose an early election, on the grounds Johnson has not categorically ruled out a no-deal exit on 31 January or 31 December 2020 (the end of the transitional period). It will be a difficult message for Corbyn to sell once the EU eventually extends the 31 October leaving date and therefore there would no longer be a risk of leaving the EU without a deal during an election campaign.

Although it generates fewer headlines than Labour’s split, the Tories are divided over an election too. Some ministers believe the statesmanlike thing to do would be to work overtime to get the bill approved by parliament, however long it takes. Instead, Johnson again threatened to throw his toys out of the pram if he didn’t get an election, by pausing the bill and going on parliamentary strike. He claims we already have a “zombie parliament”, but curiously also celebrates “a deal that has been approved by parliament”. The second reading of the bill passed by 30 votes. The Queen’s Speech was approved by 16 votes on Thursday. That doesn’t look like the “dead” parliament pronounced by Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general.

If Johnson went on strike, we would have a zombie government and voters would not be impressed. It won’t happen; Downing Street is already rowing back.

If he really believes in his “great new deal”, Johnson should subject it to normal parliamentary scrutiny and then think about an election next spring. The opposition parties should let him have one, but not until then.