Theresa May is so weak her ministers are now publicly suggesting that Brexit won’t happen

Phillip Lee, the Justice Minister, suggested last night that Britain could stay in the European Union after all – and he is still a member of the Government.

He commented on the leak of the official assessment that all Brexit scenarios would result in lower national income in 15 years, saying on Twitter: “If these figures turn out to be anywhere near right, there would be a serious question over whether a government could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging.”

Dr Lee – he was a hospital doctor who still practises occasionally as a part-time GP – is a refreshing politician who says what he thinks. He got into trouble at the Conservative Party annual conference in October when he described the welfare state, including the NHS, as a “Ponzi scheme” that was “about to collapse”.

His Twitter account is a welcome break from the usual robo-minister platitudes. But yesterday’s comments come close to disagreeing with Government policy on Brexit. Lee is commendably honest. Instead of pretending, as Theresa May did on her way to China, that the leaked assessment could be ignored because it did not cover the “special partnership” scenario that she is trying to negotiate, he accepts that any form of Brexit would have a negative effect.

The Prime Minister insults the voters’ intelligence, because her special free trade agreement would still reduce long-term GDP by more than one of the scenarios that was modelled, namely staying in the single market. This would still cut GDP by 2 per cent after 15 years, according to the leaked assessment.

The only way round the assessment is to say economic forecasts are uncertain, and that there are other benefits to leaving the EU. But the ambitious Lee, who voted Remain in the referendum, has decided to say what he thinks.

If he continues to think it, he will have to resign or be sacked. No doubt Phillip Lee will issue some kind of clarification shortly, or else No 10 will once again have to begin a small reshuffle of the junior ranks.

At the weekend, Lee refreshingly contributed to speculation about the Conservative leadership. The Sunday Times, describing him as “a friend of Mrs May”, reported him as saying it was “deluded” to think that a leadership challenge was warranted: “We’d get something worse. It would split the party and harm the country.”

On Twitter at the weekend, he said he had been selectively quoted. His argument was against a “coronation – King Boris or some such”, he said. His view is: “If it does come to a leadership challenge, there will be a contest because I know of colleagues who will make sure we don’t bypass the party’s membership, and the country, again.”

It is unusual for a minister to speculate about future leadership contests, but even more unusual to imply disagreement with a central tenet of Government policy – thus undermining the very Prime Minister he says he wants to support. Stay tuned to Phillip Lee’s Twitter feed.