Theresa May has to deal with the wrong call she made on NHS and defence spending

Boris Johnson naively calculated he was on to a “win, win” by advertising in advance of Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting that he would demand £100m a week for the NHS from the UK’s “Brexit dividend”. But he was the loser.

The Foreign Secretary hoped Conservative MPs would welcome his attempt to put some sparkle into Theresa May’s lacklustre Government, amid grumbles about her stumbling start to the year. But shares in Boris have fallen in the eyes of Tory MPs, whose support he will need to make the shortlist of two in a leadership ballot among the party’s 70,000 members. “This episode has damaged him,” one MP and former fan told me. Although Johnson might think all the public would remember from this week’s headlines was good old Boris fighting for more NHS dosh, they won’t choose the next Tory leader.

Even when Johnson chooses safe ground like the NHS, it looks like a naked attempt to parade his leadership credentials – which of course it is. He is in a hurry because if May hangs on until 2019 or 2020, the Tories might turn to the younger generation. Boris was right to warn that Downing Street cannot afford to cede the NHS playing field to Jeremy Corbyn. But he spoilt it, as ever, by making it all about him. He is desperate to deliver the rash £350m-a-week for the NHS promise he made in the 2016 referendum. He even doubled down on it last week, claiming the real figure would be £438m a week by 2021.

The Cabinet’s grown-ups know otherwise, and so were happy to join May in slapping Johnson down. He did not mention a figure and left with his tail between his legs; friends admitted he miscalculated by briefing the media before the meeting.

There is not going to be an immediate Brexit dividend. The £350m-a-week figure was a lie in the referendum, and remains one now. The independent UK Statistics Authority has called it a “clear misuse of official statistics”. It is the gross figure of what we pay the EU, not taking account of what we get back. The net figure is about £137m a week. But even that won’t be available anytime soon.

May has promised a £40bn divorce settlement, which includes paying our EU membership fee until December 2020. A two-year transitional deal is due to end around then but many in Whitehall and Brussels believe a longer period will be needed, which would mean further contributions. Then there is the tricky question of “cash for access” to the EU market in the long term.

The eventual dividend will be much smaller than Boris pretends – if there is one at all. The Government has guaranteed farmers their EU subsidies for five years at an estimated cost of at least £10bn. Similar issues will arise for regional aid, research grants and other EU-funded programmes. Then there is the likely hit to the economy from Brexit. The Financial Times calculated last month that lower growth would cost the nation – wait for it – about £350m a week. Neat.

So even asking for “only” £100m a week now was economically illiterate. May has raised hopes of an eventual Brexit bonus, with aides saying the Government hopes to channel money to priority areas such as health, education and housing.

But that is not going to ease the crisis affecting our hospitals today. Anyone doubting it – May and the Chancellor Philip Hammond included – should watch the BBC’s fly-on-the-wall report at University Hospital of North Tees on Monday’s bulletins. When May is lobbied by Tory MPs, she insists that money is not the only answer, and talks about the need for reform. But it is clear that we need to devote more of our wealth to health, probably by raising taxes.

The constraints of the hung parliament are not as great as May thinks. There is a growing cross-party consensus for the 10-year funding settlement suggested by the Health and Social Care Secretary Jeremy Hunt. It could involve an earmarked tax rise and the full integration of NHS and social care, so that the name change at Hunt’s department is not just cosmetic.

Instead, May has rebuffed 90 MPs from all parties who seek a consensus on health spending. Even worse, she has made a wrong call by giving her favoured successor, the Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, a helping hand to fight off £20bn of cuts. Of course there are real pressures on the defence budget. But the Government’s duty to keep people safe applies in hospitals too.

It would also be in May’s own interests to grasp the nettle on health; it would prolong her tenure at Number 10 by displaying the strong leadership that her MPs are crying out for.