Syria peace talks: Russia's leaked plan shows some flexibility but war will not end as long as Assad stays in power

The second round of peace talks over the fate of Syria begins this weekend. Few are optimistic. The world powers meeting in Vienna fall into three distinct camps: those who back a future for Bashar al-Assad, whose number includes Russia and Iran. Those who believe the President must go, led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And those who appear caught between the two poles, a group dominated by the US and UK. It will take quite some diplomatic contortions to agree upon a plan for peace that suits all parties. And as only Russia and Iran have committed significant military resources to the fight on the ground, they have gained the upper hand.

The question now is whether President Vladimir Putin will bend towards his partners in these talks, in the interests of producing a settlement that can last. A leaked plan circulating at the UN gives some indication of flexibility. It calls for the establishment of a new constitution in the next 18 months, to be put to a popular referendum, and followed by presidential elections. It makes no mention of Assad stepping down in the interim – which is a key demand of opposition fighters – but does assert that he will not chair the constitutional process. A best-case scenario would involve the President being sidelined as negotiations over the constitution continue, and then deposed by popular vote once they are completed.

But the situation in Syria does not invite best-case scenarios. Elections will be difficult to organise among such devastation. And Assad, who has filled the machinery of the state with family members and allies, is unlikely to accept any loosening of his grip on power that is not imposed upon him by Russia.

If Assad stays, the civil war will not end. Or at least, the only way to end it would be for Russia to redouble its current air strike strategy, which has predominantly targeted rebel groups that fall to the moderate end of the scale, and not Isis. According to US intelligence 85 per cent of Russian strikes have targeted such groups thus far. And they will not put down their arms if Assad looks set to retain power, in one form or another. The only course would be to destroy them: putting an end to the rebellion still backed by the US, albeit with a paltry amount of military supplies and a total of 50 Special Forces soldiers.

Russia, more than 200 of whose citizens appear to have been murdered in the skies above Syria, does appear to hold out the hope that its Vienna proposal will bring a “united opposition” to the table. It supports a revival of the 2012 Geneva peace proposals. But connected with the practical stumbling block of Russia bombing many of the opposition groups, is the question of which are to be labelled “terrorist” – and so barred from proceedings – and which invited in as the legitimate voice of Syrian opposition.

Taking its lead from Assad, Russia has clumped so many Syrian rebel groups together under the “terrorist” label – including some vetted by the CIA – that there would appear to be almost none left to negotiate with. Equally, many rebel groups fight alongside the al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra, which has proven among the most battle-hardy.

The likelihood is that such questions will not be resolved in Vienna. There would be a better chance if the talks took place against a backdrop of local ceasefires. So long as violence continues on the ground, diplomats will have their work cut out. The end to Syria’s nightmare remains a long way off.