Sunak’s decision on Northern Ireland could make or break his premiership

Since becoming prime minister, Rishi Sunak has gone out of his way to avoid confrontation with Conservative MPs, making tactical retreats on issues such as housebuilding and onshore wind to preserve a fragile truce.

He knew his tiptoeing act could not last for ever – and that eventually he would have to put his foot down. And now the moment of truth has arrived, as he rightly tries to lift the dark cloud over UK-EU relations by resolving the long-running dispute over the Northern Ireland protocol.

A compromise deal has been agreed in outline with Brussels. The EU has conceded that there will be separate green and red lanes for goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, meaning no routine checks for products (including agrifoods) that will remain in the province (green) rather than go on to Ireland and the EU single market (red).

In return, the UK will acknowledge that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will be the ultimate arbiter of disputes involving the protocol, though most cases are unlikely to go that high up the chain – and Sunak will drop the controversial bill that would allow the government to override unilaterally parts of the protocol.

The headache for Sunak is not the EU, but selling the draft agreement at home. Hardline Eurosceptics on the Tory benches will take their cue from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which wants the protocol “replaced with arrangements that protect Northern Ireland’s place within the UK” and has set seven tests.

The big prize for Sunak would be the DUP judging that its tests had been met, and returning to the province’s devolved administration, which has been paralysed since the party walked out a year ago over the protocol.

But the DUP is in its usual grumpy mode: it feels shut out of the UK-EU negotiations. Sunak is trying to unruffle DUP feathers in talks with Northern Ireland’s political parties in Belfast today, but did not disclose full details of the proposed deal. According to Doug Beattie, leader of the rival Ulster Unionist Party, Sunak said that “things are moving quicker than he probably anticipated” but that there is “still some way to go”.

The talks mark the start of a few days of frantic diplomacy over the deal. Some government insiders predict a choreographed agreement, in which the DUP initially rejects what’s on offer and Sunak then goes back to the EU and wins some tweaks (though EU sources tell me it is “very unlikely” to move much further).

The prime minister will have the chance to talk to EU leaders, including the commission president Ursula von der Leyen, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz, this weekend on the margins of the Munich Security Conference. A final deal might then be sealed on Monday, and announced the following day after the cabinet has approved it.

However, even the ECJ’s diluted role may be a step too far for the DUP, and thus for the European Research Group (ERG) of Tory Brexiteers, who see conspiracies to undermine Brexit around every corner and are sure there is one here – even though the deal would smooth some of Brexit’s rough edges.

Some Eurosceptics distrust Sunak and would enjoy giving him a bloody nose. Some just relish their five minutes in the media limelight. One prominent ERG member told me: “The suspicion is that Rishi will concede too much to the EU because he wants a protocol deal at any price.”

To make matters worse, Sunak knows the looming revolt might be joined by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. The naughty twins might choose to misbehave (again). Criticism from Johnson would be a bit rich given that Sunak is trying to remove the Irish Sea trade border Johnson promised not to introduce but then did. Truss seems to be enjoying the spotlight after her re-entry. Speaking in Japan today, she called for a more hawkish line against China, knowing full well that some Tory MPs think Sunak is too soft on the issue.

Sunak should bite the bullet and do the EU deal, even without DUP or ERG support. If necessary, he should face down his unruly backbenchers. They will try to force a Commons vote on the agreement, even though ministers hope they will not need one. But Sunak has the numbers to win because Labour support for the deal is guaranteed. Despite the predictable noise from the hardline Brexiteers, a majority of Tory backbenchers will probably be onside.

Stabilising UK-EU relations would provide a much-needed boost to the UK economy, by reducing trade friction and paving the way to other areas of cooperation to mutual benefit, such as on the £80bn Horizon scientific research programme.

The potential for such gains should persuade Sunak not to cave in to those on the Tory benches who shout the loudest, as both David Cameron and Theresa May did. As one of May’s former senior ministers put it: “It’s time to stop the Eurosceptic tail wagging the Tory dog.”