Sue Gray’s report leaves the sword of Damocles hanging over Boris Johnson

The long-awaited report by Sue Gray into parties at Downing Street is bad for Boris Johnson, and worse than some of his close allies were hoping. It disclosed that 12 events are being investigated by the Metropolitan Police, including one in his flat.

Yet Gray is not as bad as it would have been without the police’s surprise and controversial intervention last week. The senior civil servant is characteristically frank in her general conclusions: “There were failures of leadership and judgement by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office at different times. Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place. Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did.” It will not be easy for Johnson to escape at least some of the blame after this verdict, though he will do his level best to share it liberally.

However, Gray’s limited 12-page report can only hint tantalisingly at what her full unexpurgated findings would have been without the police telling her to make only “minimal reference” to the parties they are investigating. She does not hide her frustration at the turn of events just as she was finalising her report: “It is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather.”

Gray will keep her detailed findings under lock and key until the Met’s work is finished, and will not, it seems, even share it with Johnson. She said she will “ensure the secure storage and safekeeping of all the information gathered until such time as it may be required further”.

The public and the public interest will certainly “require” it. So will the opposition parties, and hopefully enough Tory MPs; eventually, publication of Gray 2.0 could well become the subject of a Commons vote, with Labour tabling a motion in the form of a humble address to the Queen (which was used to secure the release of the government’s legal advice during the intense Brexit debate).

Johnson, of course, may decide he does not “require” Gray to unlock her safe. Its contents will be a sword of Damocles hanging over him. As will the police investigation, for several weeks at least.

Downing Street says it will discuss the next moves with Gray, which significantly stops short of promising the publication of her “full” findings, as Johnson had previously promised.

Some of Gray’s initial findings, while critical, will enable Johnson to take the initiative – for example, by shaking up the No 10 operation and changing the culture, including what she calls “the excessive consumption of alcohol”. She makes crystal clear that changes do not need to wait for the Met’s inquiries to conclude.

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The Tory MPs who were “waiting for Sue Gray” before deciding whether to call for a vote of confidence in Johnson now have a dilemma. For some, the “failure of leadership” criticism might tip the balance in favour of doing so. But momentum is crucial in politics and some of the steam has gone out of the rebellion against Johnson; that might encourage some wavering Tories to “wait for the police” rather than submit letters to Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee.

Sometimes the easiest decision is to put off a decision. Such sentiment will probably buy Johnson some vital time – to show he can function as prime minister, to shake up Downing Street and perhaps hope that the public tire of “partygate”.

Yet Johnson is far from out the woods yet. Dangers still lurk – the police investigation, the contents of Sue Gray’s safe, the prospect of more leaks about parties or disclosures by Dominic Cummings, the lukewarm support of much of his cabinet, and the local elections in May.

And Johnson cannot afford to make any more errors on other fronts; he knows one more could end his premiership.