Why Keir Starmer must face down Labour troublemakers like Sadiq Khan

Two weeks is a long time in politics. Keir Starmer has had a painful lesson in how nothing is set in stone and how quickly things can change.

When Labour “won” the party conference season, Starmer’s authority over his party was unchallenged and he looked like a prime minister in waiting. Suddenly, Labour’s dangerous split over the Israel-Hamas war has changed that. Starmer’s authority is being challenged by internal critics who think his pro-Israel stance does not show enough empathy with the Palestinians. Some 50 Labour MPs, one in four, have called for a ceasefire, and more support the idea privately, including several frontbenchers.

The marginalised Corbynite hard left has found a way back from the wilderness by making common cause with the soft left, the natural home of Starmer, who opposed Tony Blair’s decision to go to war in Iraq (at the time, not after the event like some senior Labour figures). Starmer allies are right to argue that the internal forces lined up against him include some “who do not regard themselves as on Israel’s side and see this as a chance to rally the left around a cause”. His problem is that his critics extend way beyond such people.

Today, Starmer judges that he must support whatever Rishi Sunak does on the Middle East, in order to prove that Labour is tough on security and terrorism and avoid the tiniest hint of antisemitism. But even some of his closest allies disagree. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, used words that are not in Starmer’s lexicon, saying: “There is no justification for the collective punishment of the people of Gaza.”

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has become the most senior Labour figure to call for a ceasefire. He was joined by Rosena Allin-Khan, the former shadow minister for mental health, who also warned about “collective punishment”.

Some Starmer loyalists tell me that the party has shown it has a conscience on the Palestinian cause, and that the former human rights lawyer needs to find his own, given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. “I don’t accept that the leader of the opposition has to say the same thing as the prime minister,” one said. “We cannot give the impression that lives are not equal.”

Starmer has made mistakes. He misjudged the mood of his party, and has learnt that he cannot take the support of his MPs for granted. He will need it if Labour wins the election. As PM, he would doubtless face criticism from disappointed grassroots Labour members. But he would need his backbenchers, especially if he enjoys only a small Commons majority. That is more likely than the landslide some Labour supporters excitably predict: Labour needs a 1997-style swing to get a majority of just one.

True, Starmer has looked statesmanlike in his two Commons outings on the war. But the opposition has somehow made a foreign policy crisis that would normally be a headache for the government into a problem for itself, and appears to be talking to itself.

It took Starmer 10 days to clear up his error in suggesting that Israel has the right to cut off water and power in Gaza. He will need to move much more quickly when things go wrong in the heat of the election battle, as they will. He judged that shadow cabinet colleagues David Lammy and Lisa Nandy had set the record straight, but his party needed to hear him do it. When he did, he stopped short of apologising.

The delay allowed the pressure to build on Labour MPs who have a large Muslim population in their constituency. Now the issue has spread much wider than the Muslim community. When Starmer tried to mend fences, he made matters worse. He was accused of having “gravely misrepresented” a hastily arranged meeting with Muslim leaders in south Wales.

In recent days, Starmer has done more to acknowledge the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. His Labour critics hope he is edging towards backing a ceasefire, rather than the temporary humanitarian pause he and Rishi Sunak support for the purpose of allowing aid in. The pressure on them both will intensify if conditions in Gaza get even worse and Israel mounts a ground invasion. That could lead to the frontbench resignations Starmer has narrowly avoided so far.

Starmer’s opponents may be disappointed. He views Israel’s right to self-defence as non-negotiable. “Israel must be able to protect itself against Hamas,” said one ally.

For Starmer, the war has become a question of leadership. His long audition for the role of PM is not about one conference speech; he must now respond to unexpected events beyond his control – good training for Downing Street, but also a good opportunity for voters to see him react under pressure.

That could yet be a silver lining. Starmer is being tested, and the public is paying attention. Normally, the opposition is largely excluded from the debate during an emergency in foreign lands. Starmer’s aides are confident that he will pass what is his biggest test so far as Labour leader. But to do so, he will need to learn from his mistakes. Quickly.