What insiders say about Ron DeSantis standing for president in 2024

Every few weeks or so, The Independent’s Inside Washington newsletter (subscribe here) will highlight some potential 2024 candidates, should Joe Biden and Donald Trump not run. Consider this your Scouting Report.

Late last week before the holiday, your reporter spoke with some GOP funders and insiders about who they see as a potential alternative to another term of Trump. And it’s fairly clear that many in the donor class have their eyes on one man: Ron DeSantis.

The Florida governor has become the conservative golden boy in the past two years by virtue of his lax approach to combating the Covid-19 pandemic and his tough-guy posturing, as well as some significant policy wins for conservatives He now seems to be attracting attention not just from Republicans, but from Democrats too. California Governor Gavin Newsom, whose profile has risen ever since he beat back a conservative-backed recall last year, put out an ad over the holiday weekend bashing DeSantis and urging people who don’t like him to come to California.

All of this means that DeSantis’s stock has risen. But it’s not guaranteed he can win.

The donor class: Back in January, one insider told me that the governor was trying to raise $150 million for his reelection campaign. On Tuesday, CNN reported that he’s bagged $100 million so far. Plenty of the GOP’s biggest money men seem to be getting behind him, and as Politico reported last month, many of Trump’s former donors are now flocking to DeSantis. Eric Levine, a major GOP fundraiser, told me that the revelations about January 6 have rattled the confidence of many Trump bankrollers.

Fundraising, of course, doesn’t just help with resources; the sight of donors investing in a candidate gives a signal to voters that this is someone worth getting behind.

Picking the right enemies: For all the outrage that DeSantis attracted when he signed the infamous “Don’t Say Gay” bill, the legislation was also a signal to conservative base voters that he is prepared to fight two groups they love to beat up on: LGBTQ+ rights activists and – when he signed legislation dissolving Disney’s self-governing agreement – liberal Hollywood.

“I think what he’s done is given courage to Republican leaders all across the country that hey, you can take on culture wars, you can take on the Disneys of the world,” the Florida fundraiser told me.

This, of course, ignores the fact that Disney has given handsomely to the governor in the past. But as The Atlantic’s David Frum has said, it shows that while Trump is preoccupied with nursing his own grudges, DeSantis is laser-focused on “owning the libs”. And where Trump is complaining about supposedly stolen elections, DeSantis has actually signed “electoral integrity” bills into law.

Crossover support: While DeSantis is winning the hearts, minds and wallets of the party faithful, the less-examined part of his record has been the fact that as governor, he has increased pay for teachers and prioritized restoration of the Florida Everglades. He could make a case to donors and grassroots voters that these measures will soften up independents and moderate Democrats, two crucial groups who might not buy into the red meat he’s throwing to the base.

Of course, there are reasons why he couldn’t run as well – and one big one...

Trump: The biggest obstacle to DeSantis 2024 is the former president’s vice-like grip on the Republican Party. Trump could easily say that in his 2020 run, he made inroads with working-class people of color and improved his margin in the Sunshine State. Similarly, while the former president’s ecosystem has sent some hints it is watching DeSantis, Trump has yet to turn his fire on the governor, whom he sees as a product of his own movement.