Republicans are tearing themselves apart now Trump is gone — but Democrats shouldn’t get too comfortable

Ohio Senator Rob Portman, a Republican, said yesterday that he will not seek reelection in 2022, citing “partisan gridlock.” Translated from politician-ese, that means that Portman is quitting because he discovered that being a Senator is no longer much fun.

And It’s easy to see why it isn’t. Democrats just won the chamber, which means Portman will be languishing in the minority for the foreseeable future. More, former president Donald Trump’s efforts to overthrow the 2020 election results has thrown the Republicans into a seemingly endless round of backbiting and chaos.

Immediately after the November election, the Republicans seemed to be in a decent position. Joe Biden won a decisive victory, but not a blowout; Republicans picked up seats in the House; and it looked like they would hold the Senate.

But then everything fell apart for the GOP. Trump refused to accept the election results, and pressured local Republican officials to ignore the will of their voters through a slew of dodgy and outright illegal tactics. His attacks on the Georgia Republican party in particular probably contributed to historic losses in two run-off elections in the state in January, giving Democrats control of the Senate.

Trump’s rhetoric also inspired the January 6 attempted insurrection. This has split Republicans like Portman, who voted to certify the election results, from rabid Trumpist pro-conspiracy theorists like Senators Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, who continue to insist that Biden’s victory may have been fraudulent and needs to be investigated.

Usually, off-year elections are good for the out party. Republicans should be gearing up to win back the House and Senate right now. Instead, though, the party is flailing. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who won in 2020 easily in a special election, faces voters again in 2022, and the state GOP looks set to hand him the seat again as it sets itself on fire. Business leaders and big-name donors, including Google, are pulling money from Republicans who supported Trump’s anti-election efforts. Trump himself is threatening to start his own third party, a move which could be devastating for Republicans electorally.

Portman’s decision not to run, then, is a sign of general Republican disorganization, division, and despair. Pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions are warring more openly than at any time since Trump cemented the nomination. The outlook for the party in the near future, at least, looks bleak — which is why incumbent Senators aren’t eager to run for office again.

But political fortunes can change quickly. The Republican party was crushed in the 2008 election following a financial crisis and failed war. But they came roaring back to win the House of Representatives in 2010, the Senate in 2014, and the presidency in 2016. In a two-party system, it’s difficult to keep the out party out for very long, no matter how badly they discredit themselves.

Republicans have consistently lost the popular vote in national elections over the last thirty years. Their policies and agenda — such as getting rid of the ACA, or reducing aid during a national pandemic — are not very popular. But the US electoral system favors white, rural Republican voters. Republicans have capitalized on that further by pushing aggressive voter suppression tactics and gerrymandering.

They’ve also used supermajority requirements in the Senate, where 60 votes are currently needed to pass most bills, to block the Democratic agenda. They’ve repeatedly stopped Democrats from passing election reform efforts to make sure more people can vote.

Democrats currently want to pass a massive $1.9 trillion Covid aid package which would raise the minimum wage, expand unemployment benefits, and provide billions for vaccine distribution and procurement. It would allow Biden to boost the economy and get the virus under control, giving him a strong platform for 2022. But if Republicans decide to block it and deliberately immiserate the public, conditions will be terrible in 2022 — and the president’s party usually suffers when conditions are terrible.

The Democrats have some options. They can reform the filibuster, ending the 60-vote Senate, or expand reconciliation, which allows some bills to pass with 50 votes. Biden can also use executive power for some ambitious programs, like canceling federal student debt.

Democrats’ margin in the Senate is narrow, though, and some conservative Senators like West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and and Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema have balked at such aggressive procedural maneuvers. Biden himself has been cautious about promising executive actions. Democrats are worried about alienating independent voters or centrists if they overreach. But the alternative is to continue to let constituents suffer until the Republicans get organized enough to take power again.

Republicans embraced extremism, hatred, and supine acquiescence to the depredations of a catastrophic pandemic. They have disgraced and discredited themselves so thoroughly that even Rob Portman can’t take it anymore. They deserve a series of electoral defeats so stinging that they’ll regret they ever heard the name “Trump.”

Democrats need to cut off the monster’s head. Otherwise, the dead will rise again, even more determined to suck the blood out of democracy than the last time. If that happens, Democrats will have no one to blame but themselves.