The next Republican nominee? Tucker Carlson has a serious outside chance

I didn’t really expect to write another piece on US political betting until, perhaps, the run up to the midterm elections. But the Capitol riots have changed the dynamic across the Atlantic and also the odds.  

The Democrats’ incumbency and demographic advantages, along with the riots and bitter fight for the Republican Party’s soul, strongly favours them to retain the presidency come 2024.  

Interestingly, Kamala Harris is now slight favourite in some places to win in 2024 – priced as low as 7/2 – on the assumption that Joe Biden does not stand for a second term or does not make it through the current one (a 9/4 shot). However, recent reports suggest the 78-year-old is minded to become the first octogenarian candidate for the White House and leaders rarely surrender power unless they’re forced to, so the best price 9/2 on him becoming a two-term president looks like value.  

That said, who knows how he’ll feel after four years in the White House. At the very least, a small investment on Harris at the 4/1 still widely available would seem wise before settling down to watch the Grand Old Party (GOP), shorn of power at the federal level, tear itself to shreds. Not terribly attractive viewing, it’s true, but potentially entertaining if you’ve exhausted Netflix during lockdown.

When it comes to the Republicans, the nominee market would be the one to focus on. It appeared fairly simple last time I looked, when I divided the candidates into three categories: a Trump, another Republican, or an outsider, perhaps resident Fox News demagogue Tucker Carlson.  

The riots have thrown a wrench into those calculations. Donald Trump is still by a distance the party’s most popular politician. But the ardour is cooling. A Morning Consult/Politico survey, which asked GOP voters who they’d choose if the primary was held today, registered a 12 point drop in support for Trump – 42 per cent, compared with 54 per cent at the end of November.  

The margin of error – four points – is large and the sample size (595 GOP voters) relatively small. But it’s still worthy of note. Ladbrokes told me there had been a distinct lack of interest in the new resident of Mar-a-Lago among punters and Trump’s odds have duly drifted from 7/2 to 6/1.  

It’s interesting that his support is falling away from both the extreme side – the New York Times has reported disillusionment among the far right Proud Boys – and from more traditional Republicans repelled by the footage from Washington DC.

The chance of Trump being convicted by the US Senate in an impeachment trial for inciting those riots now seems vanishingly slim, with Republican senators queueing up to object to it on procedural grounds (putting a former president on trial is “unconstitutional”).  

A vote barring him from standing for public office would require 17 Republicans to line up alongside all the Democrats, assuming no backsliding among the more conservative members of their caucus. That’s not happening but Trump is sufficiently damaged that I don’t rate his chances in 2024.

He will likely still play a role in the battle for the party’s future, though, and may try and play kingmaker. But don't forget, there’s a lot of hot legal water to flow under the bridge, and he’s currently without a serious social media platform.  

So, another Trump? Don Jr has his finger on the pulse of the GOP’s aggrieved, conspiracy theory-loving base, but his support also showed signs of slippage in that poll (six per cent from eight per cent). Ditto the odds (33/1 with Ladbrokes but still just 10/1 with Paddy Power).  

I thought he was the value of the Trump field. For now, I’m ruling them all out, which includes Ivanka (20/1). The former registered Democrat has apparently entertained the notion. But it’s not just her father who could find himself in the middle of a legal swamp.

Of the other Republicans, former Vice President Mike Pence was the only one to poll in double figures. Popular with socially conservative evangelicals because he’s one of their own, his chances may be complicated by Trump’s fury at his refusal to throw out the election result (which he had no power to do). If Trump’s flush is genuinely busted by 2024, he might look like a sprightlier runner and there is precedent. Veeps often get a run. But I’m not buying him at 8/1.

Nikki Haley is far too short a price at 11/2 with Paddy Power, although not being in congress, Trump’s former ambassador to the UN could sit and watch while her party’s leaders pull each other apart and then position herself accordingly.

We’re getting into horror show territory with Ted Cruz, who ran Trump closest last time. His ambition is as limitless as his principles are lacking. But he’s disliked even among his GOP colleagues and his opponents will use his attempt to decertify the election as a stick to beat him with (as they will with the similarly ambitious and unprincipled Josh Hawley).  

I still think Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, who voted to certify, is a frighteningly good bet at 20/1 (Ladbrokes) given the way the hard right winger can speak to the GOP base.  

But it might also be worth looking at someone from a governor’s mansion. The party actually has some popular moderates who have won in blue states; people such as Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, who has said he supports Trump’s impeachment, and especially Larry Hogan in Maryland, christened the party’s “anti-Trump” by the Washington Post. They’re both 50/1 shots with Ladbrokes. A sensible Republican challenger would be good for America, but I don’t think it will get one.  

Much more likely is a Trumpian populist with the potential to inch away from him if necessary. South Dakota’s Kristi Noem or even Ron DeSantis in Florida, who are both 33/1 with Paddy Power look like live candidates. It’s notable that Ladbrokes has the latter at 16s.  

As for outsiders, the 55/1 Paddy Power offers on Carlson is a huge price. I’d be minded to have a small interest because the world will need a stiff whisky if he looks like getting a sniff of the Oval Office. The winnings at that price should pay for a fancy single malt or two.