Population is growing across the globe – but unevenly and often where you wouldn’t expect it

The world’s population will keep growing for the next 50 years or so, growing from its present 7.7 billion to 8.5 billion in 2030; then 9.7 billion in 2050 onto 10.9 billion in 2100. But – and this is really important – it is growing at a slower pace than previously expected.

These numbers come from the new United Nations World Population Prospects, which are updated every two years. The UN has become really good at this. Back in the early 1990s it was projecting that there would be between 7.5 billion and 8 billion people in the world in 2020 – so what has happened has turned out to be pretty much dead centre of the range. Obviously the further you look forward the wider the possible range of outcomes, but for 2050 at least we can have a lot of confidence in their estimates. I think their broader expectation that population will have peaked by 2100 will turn out to be right too.

For anyone who wants to dig into the data, the highlights of these new projections are here and the more detailed numbers are here. But, looking to 2050 rather than beyond, these are what seem to me to be the five key points.

First, the population of the developed world taken as a whole will be stable, and all the net growth will accordingly be in the emerging world.

Second, within the developed world there will be a shift from continental Europe and Japan towards North America, and to a lesser extent the UK.

Third, in Asia the big shift will be from China and the rest of South East Asia (where population will start to fall) to South Asia where it will continue to rise. India passes China as the world’s most populous nation around 2027.

Fourth, the greatest growth will come from sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria passing the US to become the third most populous nation by 2050.

And fifth, almost the entire world will be older. In 2018 for the first time in history there were more people over the age of 65 than there were children under five. By 2050 there will be double as many over-65s as under-fives.

Some thoughts about each.

The shift of the balance of economic power to the emerging world has been widely noted. The political structures have started to evolve to recognise this. Thus the summit meeting this weekend is of the Group of Twenty, not the Group of Seven – the additional members being the large emerging economies. Part of this rebalancing has been from economic catch-up: in shorthand, China and more recently India applying technologies developed in the west. But part is demography. If you are a country with a young and fast-growing workforce you will, other things being equal, grow faster than one with an elderly and declining one.

So we should all recognise how much demography is driving the shift and figure out ways to turn this into a positive outcome for all.

Second, we should equally accept that power within the developed world will shift to North America. The US goes up from 329 million to 379 million in 2050, Canada from 37 million to 46 million. By contrast Germany falls from 84 million to 80 million, Italy from 61 million to 54 million and Spain from 47 million to 44 million. True, France goes up a bit from 65 million to 68 million but it is the only large country on the European continent to increase.

Meanwhile the UK is projected to rise from 68 million to 74 million in 2050 and passing Germany to become Europe’s most populous country sometime around 2080. We will have to build a lot more homes to give our people a decent life.

This will lead to some tough choices, particularly within Europe. The Robert Schuman Foundation, a European research centre created in 1991 after the fall of the Berlin Wall, has described Europe’s prospects by 2050 as “demographic suicide”. That is harsh. But Europe unquestionably will be a much less important force in the world, particularly if the UK economy diverges further from that of the continent.

My big takeaway here is that all developed countries face challenges: the US, for example must deal with the issues, if any, that come with greater diversity. In 2045 it will become “minority white”. Dealing with that will however surely be easier than the problems of relatively rapid decline faced by much of Eastern Europe, Japan and Russia.

Third, the shift from China to India. This is not just about numbers; it is also about age structure. China will have to find ways of remaining vigorous despite its declining workforce, while India will have to create opportunities for its still-expanding one. This is not simply a national issue; it is a regional one. Much of South East Asia faces similar challenges to China; the rest of the Indian sub-continent, to those of India. Inevitably, both regions face grave environmental challenges too.

Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the fastest-growing region of the world. That is wonderful. But that growth is from a low base and driven in part by population growth, so that living standards are rising only slowly. I suppose the great question is whether Africa’s rising population will turn out to be a strength or a weakness, and the answers will turn on governance, education and environmental progress. But for Nigeria to manage successfully its march from 201 million people now to 401 million in 2050 will be a challenge indeed.

Finally a quite thought about ageing. The population of much of the world is already older than it has ever been. We know that the balance will shift further, the only issue being the pace of change. How do we use that shift positively for the good of humankind? That is the most important question of all.