Which election poll is right? That depends on how successful Labour are at getting younger voters to the polls

Another clutch of polls; continued uncertainty about the outcome. That would seem the only sensible way of summarising the latest election data in which the Conservative lead over Labour ranges from one point (according to Survation) to 12 points (as estimated by ComRes).

Nevertheless, despite the differences between them, there is still one important message from the latest polls. It looks as though the Tory lead has narrowed yet further, not least because the central plank of the party’s campaign – that only Theresa May can provide “strong and stable” leadership – has been significantly undermined.

While, at 44 per cent, the average Tory rating across all polls conducted during the last week is unchanged from the previous, support for Labour has increased by another two points to 37 per cent. Across the campaign as a whole Jeremy Corbyn and his colleagues have managed to add 11 points to what was a dismal standing of 26 per cent when the election was called. In contrast, Conservative support is down three points on what it was a month ago.

Voters’ perceptions of the two leaders have changed dramatically. On the one hand, Corbyn’s stock has risen markedly. According to Opinium, just 18 per cent approved of the way he was handling the job of Labour leader when the election was called. Now 31 per cent do so. Equally, YouGov report that whereas at the beginning of the campaign, just 13 per cent thought Corbyn was doing his job well, now as many as 42 per cent think he is doing so.

Indeed, voters acknowledge that they have changed their mind about Corbyn. Thirty-seven per cent say they now think more positively about him, while only 9 per cent express the opposite view. Amongst Labour voters no less than 70 per cent say they now think more positively about him, a change of mood that has probably been vital in persuading Labour-inclined voters, many of whom had hitherto seemed deeply reluctant to vote for a Corbyn-lead Labour party, to return to the fold.

In contrast, the Prime Minister’s popularity has fallen. At the beginning of the campaign Opinium found that 48 per cent approved of May’s performance as Prime Minister, while only 27 per cent disapproved. Now those figures are 43 per cent and 37 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, according to YouGov, slightly more voters now think she is doing badly as Prime Minister (47 per cent) than believe she is doing well (42 per cent). Just a few weeks ago, 55 per cent felt she was doing well and only 31 per cent badly.

And, equally, no less than 38 per cent say that they have come to think more negatively of the Prime Minister, while just 9 per cent espouse the opposite view. Rarely can a politician have sought to win a personal mandate only to suffer such a dramatic drop in their reputation.

Still, that said, voters evidently do struggle to see Corbyn as Prime Minister. Opinium still find that as many as 42 per cent of voters think that May would make the better fist of the job, while only 26 per cent believe the advantage lies with Corbyn. We should remember too that every single poll has put the Conservatives ahead – none has come near to producing figures that suggest Labour might emerge as the largest party.

Still, the polls do disagree sharply about how large the Conservative lead is. One reason lies in a disagreement between pollsters about how many younger voters will make it to the polls. Younger voters have always been less likely to vote than their older counterparts. However, this age gap has become more important. Almost every polling company finds that Labour is now at least twice as popular as the Conservatives amongst those aged under 35. As a result Labour’s prospects depend heavily on whether they can get younger voters to the polls.

Some polling companies, most notably Survation and YouGov, are quite optimistic about how many younger people will vote, and it is their polls that so far have produced the smallest Conservative leads. In contrast, ComRes and ICM, who more recently have reported the largest Conservative leads, are reckoning that relatively few younger people will vote. Indeed, they seem to be reckoning that the difference in turnout between younger and older people could be even bigger than last time. In the meantime, other companies such as Ipsos MORI and ORB, fall in-between these two extremes in their estimates of turnout amongst younger voters and at present are also in-between in their estimate of the Tory lead.

Which company proves to be right may well depend on how successful Labour have been in motivating younger voters to make it to the polls. On that it might be worth noting that Opinium report that voters in general, and younger voters in particular, are more likely to say they have been contacted by Labour than by the Conservatives. If Labour are winning the ground war they may be relatively successful at getting their voters to make it to the polls.

Meanwhile, perhaps some voters will feel that it is even more important to vote in the wake of an election campaign that has now been punctuated by not one, but two horrendous terrorist incidents. After all, an election should be a demonstration that political differences can be settled by peaceful means.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University