Who’s actually going to the win at the Oscars? These are the only predictions you need

The 2022 Oscars nominations are in. You know what this means: Oscars predictions are officially de rigueur!

First things first: Kristen Stewart is now an Oscar nominee, up for Best Lead Actress for her performance as Princess Diana in Pablo Larraín’s Spencer. My home country of France recognized her cinematic talent in 2015 by awarding her a César – a.k.a a French Oscar — but I’m told a French Oscar isn’t quite as exciting as an American Oscar, so: hooray!

What’s particularly interesting about Stewart’s Oscar nomination is that Diana is a famously tricky role, and her life a famously tricky adaptation. There’s a Diana musical going on in New York right now, and the critics are, shall we say, not loving it. (“If you care about Diana as a human being, or dignity as a concept, you will find this treatment of her life both aesthetically and morally mortifying,” wrote The New York Times’s Jesse Green.) All the more kudos to Stewart for sticking the landing.

Nominated alongside Stewart are Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, Penélope Cruz for The Parallel Mothers, and Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. Stewart is in a strong position; the Academy has historically rewarded this kind of radical-transformation acting, in which a performer goes above and beyond to embody a known figure (and her British accent made headlines as soon as a teaser for Spencer was unveiled). Chastain and Kidman fall into the same category, respectively as Faye and Lucille Ball. Stewart’s performance, however, is momentous, unexpected, and ambitious in a way that screams Oscar winner to me. I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t win.

Speaking of radical-transformation acting, the Lucille Ball/Desi Arnazl biopic Being the Ricardos brought acting nominations for both its leads, Javier Bardem, and Nicole Kidman. (Kidman’s transformation into Ball was less spectacular than Chastain’s as Faye, but still intense.) Bardem is up for Best Lead Actor, a crowded category if there ever was one – Benedict Cumberbatch is up for The Power of the Dog, Will Smith for King Richard, Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick... Boom!, and Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth. I would love the Academy to finally give Will Smith an Oscar (he has been nominated for Best Actor twice before). Realistically, though, I see it going to Garfield for his performance as Rent creator Jonathan Larson.

In the Best Supporting Actress category, Kirsten Dunst has finally been bestowed a nomination by the Academy, for The Power of the Dog. I think it’s fair to say the industry has denied this talented actor the recognition she deserves since time immemorial, so it’s good to see her finally getting a look-in here. I hope she wins — and I believe she will — both because her performance as a conflicted, tortured, social-climbing wife is so good (a specific scene involving a piano is the definition of Oscar-worthy), and because her nomination is so long overdue.

On the Best Picture side, Don’t Look Up seems like it’s going to take the trophy. Adam McKay’s climate change satire has the makings of a quintessential Oscar winner: a star-studded cast (including juggernauts such as Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence, and Leonardo DiCaprio), a stern moral, and already a decently sized audience (not quite as many as, say, Titanic, but certainly more than Nomadland.)

If my personal tastes ruled the world, The Power of the Dog would take the cake, because this movie broke my heart in the best way (and because of Jane Campion, who by the way is now the only woman to be nominated twice for Best Director), but I’m prepared to see Don’t Look Up prevail. We all have to prepare ourselves for that eventuality.

Licorice Pizza could also steal the Academy’s heart, in that it falls squarely in the “love letter to LA” category, which is of course the most beloved category of all LA types. It’s a mostly enjoyable watch, but it never quite figures out what it’s trying to say about the age-gap romance at the center of the plot, and two scenes that attempt to joke at racism simply don’t land. In fact, they end up feeling downright uncomfortable. Don’t Look Up is probably still the one to watch in this category.

Speaking of Licorice Pizza, I wouldn’t have been mad if Bradley Cooper had scored a nomination for Best Supporting Actor for his hilariously volcanic portrayal of Jon Peters. (Who is Jon Peters, you ask? It’s a long story.) But that category is already busy – as it should be – due to the inclusion of two members of the Power of the Dog cast: Jesse Plemons, who was moving as the long-suffering brother of Benedict Cumberbatch’s Phil Burbank, and Kodi Smit-McPhee, who at the end of the film pulls off a smile that is a reveal, a twist, and the movie’s emotional core all wrapped into one. Plemons deploys the full power of his acting here in a way we haven’t really seen before, while Smit-McPhee is simply magnetic. One of them is definitely going to win — and I’d put my money on Plemons.

Elsewhere, one wonders whether Steven Spielberg is even excited — about his nomination for Best Director, I mean. Until yesterday, he had been nominated 17 times – his total is now 19 nominations. (And he has won three Oscars so far.) Is this something anyone can get used to? Or does it still feel as exhilarating as it did the first time? Every artist worries about losing relevance, but Spielberg has been consistently getting nominated for Oscars in every decade since 1978. In fact, he’s now the first person to have been nominated for Best Director across six different decades.

Other things I’m not mad about: Maggie Gyllenhaal getting nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for The Lost Daughter. Jessie Buckley getting nominated for Best Supporting Actress for The Lost Daughter. Nicholas Britell getting nominated for Best Original Score for – plot twist! – Don’t Look Up. Britell is also the brilliant mind behind the intoxicating Succession opening theme and score, and he has scored films such as Moonlight, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Big Short, and Vice. I’m a fan.

However, as a French person, I must rail against the Academy’s outrageous snub of Titane. Seriously! It’s a Julia Ducournau movie! It’s messed-up and icky and sometimes hard to watch and clever and absolutely out of control! What more do you want? Que voulez-vous de plus?

Nevertheless, I will watch the Oscars on March 27, because – in case the above didn’t make that clear – I care deeply about awards season. See you all there!