After Nikki Haley's resignation, the Democrats should be very worried

It’s been just 24 hours since Brett Kavanaugh was sworn in as Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court, representing a huge coup for Donald Trump, and drawing a line under a remarkable few weeks in American politics, even by the standards of this administration.

But where many on the right were euphoric yesterday, today there has been sudden, unpleasant shock to the system, with the announcement of US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley’s resignation.

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro responded with horror on Twitter. Senator Lindsey Graham, so vociferous in his defence of Kavanaugh, led the tributes.

This is clearly a blow to the Trump White House. Haley had been a staunch champion of the US and its allies, especially Israel, at the UN, and was vital in the thawing in relations with North Korea.

She was, in a time of increasingly wild rhetoric, a calming voice in the Republican Party. A relative moderate in the wild west of Trumpland. Someone who gave the president a degree of acceptability.

But Haley has never been a natural Trump ally. Before he even announced his decision to run for the presidency, she had been a vocal critic of him as a potential commander-in-chief, speculating in 2015 that his temperament could lead to war. The same year she had criticised the presence of the Confederate flag on the state house building in North Carolina, where she was governor, and broke ranks with other Republicans by calling out the president over allegations of womanising and assault. “I think any woman who has felt violated or felt mistreated in any way, they have every right to speak up,” she said in 2017.

Perhaps it was that staunch defence of women’s right to be heard over such allegations that has led to her resignation in the aftermath of the Kavanaugh appointment. It would be difficult to maintain a position in the administration having made such an assertion, given the allegations against him. It was barely possible to serve under the president himself whilst maintaining such a stance. The timing of her resignation is telling; it draws a clear line between herself and Trump, and what specifically she seems to consider unacceptable – even if she hasn’t said it out loud.

But Republicans, for all they may lament, should see this for what it really is. Haley may be leaving the Trump administration, which will weaken the president, but it will also strengthen Haley herself, insulating her reputation from the fallout the Kavanaugh appointment may bring.

It is little secret that many in the GOP look at Haley as a presidential candidate of the future. She has cross-spectrum appeal, and ticks more boxes than any other serious politician on the left or right; she is the daughter of Indian migrants, and a moderate. She is hawkish on Iran, staunch on Israel, is a free marketeer and a vociferous champion of women. She has both domestic and international political experience at the highest level, both as UN Ambassador and as the former governor of South Carolina. She is untouched by scandal, has a calm, collected and firm manner, and, at just 46, has time on her side.

Shorn of Trump, she no longer risks potential contagion by association. What’s more, freed from the shackles of office, she will no longer have to tow the party line. She has said she will not run in 2020, but should Trump remain safely in office, she would could easily launch her own insurgency in the four years building up to the next presidential race, clearly positioning herself as the person who can bridge the divide between Trump voters and female and ethnic minority voters alienated by the president – and the Kavanaugh appointment.

It is the nightmare scenario for the Democrats. When you look at possible presidential challengers Cory Booker or Elizabeth Warren, and even the lawyer who publicised some of the later allegations against Kavanaugh, Michael Avenatti, the language of the left in the United States has become one of division and resistance. And while it has created noise, not for nothing are the Republicans – having at one time looked like they might lose the Senate – now likely to retain it. None of these options are likely to be strong enough to unseat a divisive Trump in 2020. What hope is there that they could defeat a unifying candidate like Haley in 2024?

Perhaps the biggest fear among Republicans during Trump’s two years has been what his legacy will be. Will the party be able to recover if his time in office continues down its current path? In Nikki Haley, they have a candidate capable of solving that problem. They may be sad to see her go today, but it will be worth it if she is back in the White House in 2024.