The military coup in Niger could have profound global consequences

Sitting in his hotel room in London, where he had come to attend the coronation of King Charles III, President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger told me how in a region beset with jihadists, Russia’s Wagner mercenaries and unstable miliary regimes, his country has become a key partner of the West.

That certainly appeared to be borne out by the flurry of high-profile meetings. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, visited Niger, the defence secretary Lloyd Austin was due to follow. British ministers were said to be planning trips. Bazoum had met President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, and he was one of few non-Commonwealth African heads of state present for the Royal crowning.

“We are fully aware of the dangers in our region, there are regular attempts to destablise our government and society. But with the help of our Western partners, with investment and education, I am sure we can preserve democracy in our country,” said President Bazoum as he prepared to depart for Westminster Abbey.

That was just over nine weeks ago. Now Niger has been dragged into the turbulence swirling in that part of West Africa with a military coup in which Bazoum’s own presidential guard have taken him hostage – and blockaded his residence as well as government ministries.

Other branches of the forces have refused, so far, to back the coup – and crowds are out in the streets of the capital, Niamey, in support of the 64-year-old president, despite soldiers holding him reported to have opened fire to break up the protests.

The US, EU, UK, and the African Union have all condemned the rebellion and warned of the possibility of violent strife. The loyalist faction of the army had issued an ultimatum to the mutineers that they would face armed action unless they backed down.

Blinken promised Niger’s president “unwavering support” from the US. Catherine Colonna, the French foreign minister, said her government is keeping a close watch on what is unfolding and deciding on what to do. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, stressed that Niger is “an essential partner” and “destabilisation would serve no one’s interest.” In London, foreign office minister Andrew Mitchell said the UK “condemns in the strongest terms any attempt to undermine stability and democracy in Niger”.

The situation is certainly precarious, with the presence of branches of both al-Qaeda and Isis in the country – and also the prevalence of military regimes in the neighbourhood.

The latter is of special interest, with the backdrop of the attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group in Russia. That failed, but Wagner’s highly lucrative operations in Africa have continued – and appears to be getting buttressed with the Kremlin’s blessing.

Prigozhin, branded a traitor by Vladimir Putin when he launched his march on Moscow, and pardoned when he called it off, was reported to be attending a Russia-Africa Forum in St Petersburg on Thursday.

Niger’s neighbouring states, Mali and Burkina Faso, has undergone military coups. Both have Wagner presence, as do other parts of the continent – the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mozambique and Libya.

Niger, which is five times the size of the United Kingdom and has a population of 27 million, experiences high levels of poverty. I have seen the terrible effects of deprivation while reporting on famine in Niger and the effect of the climate crisis on what unfolded.

It is one of the countries hardest hit by the climate crisis in West Africa. The temperatures in the Sahel are rising 1.5 times faster than anywhere else in the world. A cycle of erratic rainfall and droughts has eroded 15 per cent of its arable land.

But Niger is also rich in mineral wealth and produces 7 per cent of the world’s supply of uranium. The US and the UK claimed, memorably and falsely, in the run-up to the Iraq invasion, that Saddam Hussein was seeking to obtain uranium yellowcake from Niger for his WMD programme.

Wagner’s commercial interest in Africa ranges from oil and gas, to bauxite and gold. For instance, the company is reportedly being paid by Burkina Faso’s army rulers with rights to a gold mine. Mali, where the mercenaries arrived at the invitation of the military regime to replace departing French, British and other Western forces, has considerable gold reserves.

This week, the Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee charged that the failure of the British government over a decade to monitor Wagner’s activities and financial transactions in Africa has helped it to gain immense riches and called for new sanctions on the company.

“Wagner is certainly a very real presence in our region,” Bazoum told me during his London visit. “They are in Libya, which continues to be volatile and from where we have had weapons going to the Islamists in other countries ever since the fall of [Muammar] Gaddafi.

“What has Wagner’s presence in Mali led to any benefit for Mali? I would say not at all. We have certainly no intention of inviting them into our country. They create problems, [they] don’t solve them. We know they have been engaged in disinformation campaigns against us.”

A fake social media post claimed that Bazoum had faced a coup while visiting Macron in Paris; another that the French had armed a group of jihadists who killed 17 members of Niger’s armed forces at around the same time. Both of these posts have been traced to the Lakhta project, a troll farm financed by Prigozhin, which has been sanctioned by the US since 2018.

It remains to be seen how the revolt in Niger plays out. Bazoum has remained defiant in captivity, tweeting, “the hard-won achievements will be safeguarded. All Nigerians who love democracy and freedom will see to it.”

It may be that the president with the support of the population and the remainder of the army will prevail – but then again, he may not.

Blinken, during his visit to Niamey, warned of the malign influence of Wagner. “We have already seen it end badly in a number of places where Wagner has been present; bad things have been inevitable.”

But what measures do the US and West take now in Niger? Another military regime coming to power in the volatile region may see Wagner’s influence grow even more in Africa.