Nigel Farage will attempt to win votes with cheap stunts – don’t let him

Almost a third of the way into the general election campaign and Nigel Farage does it again.

Just as you thought voter fatigue might already be kicking in, the great self-publicist – indeed, the showman of modern British politics – pulls his rabbit out of the hat.

Last week, he was only interested in the US presidential election. This week he is the candidate for Clacton, the former seat of Douglas Carswell, the Tory MP who quit to join Ukip in 2014. Indeed, as he launched his campaign in front of a crowd of supporters, he promised to be a “bloody nuisance” – before having a milkshake thrown over him.

I have long been cautious of the chances of a landslide victory for Labour, but with Farage taking over the leadership of Reform UK (and all the coverage that this will give him) I now think that anti-Labour votes – which might have gone to the Conservatives – are much more likely to switch to Reform.

Farage might take the seat, and Lee Anderson – who quit the Tories earlier this year – might just pull off a win in the Nottinghamshire seat of Ashfield.

The last two weeks have seen one or two eye-catching attempts to gain the attention of the electorate. The Conservatives floated the idea of national service, a policy clearly aimed at an older generation – conscription ended in 1960.

But there is, in fact, a very real challenge facing young people, which community service would help in part, to resolve. According to the Office for National Statistics, there are 900,000 16 to 24-year-olds who are not in education, employment or training, and just under two-thirds of those are not, for ill-health and other reasons, seeking work. The implications are profound with respect to the health and wellbeing, of their future – and their early connection with the world of work.

Then we have had another bone thrown to the same group of voters who are suspicious of the expanded opportunity for young people to take the university route. Namely, that some courses would be cut and apprenticeships offered instead. I am in favour of apprenticeships – they were commonplace in my city of Sheffield many years ago. A pity, therefore, that there has been an enormous drop in younger people taking this pathway over the last few years.

Another problem is that the sums don’t add up. University students take out loans, whereas apprenticeships are funded from the public purse, including the levy on larger businesses.

Plus a whole variety of other half-promises, adding up to billions of unfunded commitments, with more on national insurance still to come!

But none of these ill-thought-through gimmicks will be able to match anything that Farage will come up with in the next four weeks. Not just significant for the Tory vote, but also for the direction of the Conservative Party after the election. We have already seen a role reversal of the two major parties and with the increased pressure now on Rishi Sunak, this trend can only accelerate.

In 2019, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, his shadow chancellor, promised the earth as they racked up tens of billions of pounds in projected spending, which frightened the electorate to death. This time it is Labour playing the caution card, refusing to be egged into substantial spending pledges, while the Conservatives have reinvented the “magic money tree" that former prime minister Theresa May said didn’t exist.

This week we have already seen Keir Starmer putting his tanks on the Tory’s lawn with his promise to cut legal migration and upskill the UK workforce. However, at this stage, most people have had their attention, if at all, on what the election outcome will mean for them in terms of the health service, social care and education.

It will be interesting to see what the Reform Party has to say on these central issues.

Before the end of this election campaign, I hope that there will be a great deal more from all politicians on the bread-and-butter issues on which fly-by-nights have nothing to say.

In the end – and this might seem incredibly downbeat for someone who has always liked the cut and thrust of political debate – this election might just be more about stability and a safe pair of hands than anything eye-catching or dramatic.

Not, I fear, a message to get people enthused to cast their vote, but much more crucial to the future of our country than a boost to the ego of one individual.

Lord Blunkett is a former Labour home secretary and served as the MP for Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough from 1987 to 2015