Sturgeon’s arrest signals the spiralling destruction of the SNP – and the stagnation of Scottish independence

So, obviously this is a bit of a parlour game, but bear with me. Who recently said the following? Was it Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon or Donald Trump:

“Innocence is not just a presumption I am entitled to in law. I know beyond doubt that I am in fact innocent of any wrongdoing. To the many people who have sent messages of support over these past difficult weeks – including since today's news broke – thank you for your kindness.”

You know the answer. But it’s interesting and informative to see just how well the appeal to friends made by Sturgeon after her arrest actually fits her. The warp-speed political downfall of Sturgeon is that much more spectacular because, despite rumblings for some time, it was so unexpected and precipitous. Not so long ago she was allegedly sniffing out jobs at the UN. Now she’s chatting to the constabulary.

It’s worse for Sturgeon because she was respected, even by most of her opponents, as effective and competent, in a way Trump and Johnson never were. When she quit the tributes were effusive to the point of self-parody.

Now she risks being suspended from the Scottish National Party she joined aged 16, in 1986. It was plainly an act of faith, because that was a time when the cause of Scottish independence was the pursuit of a cranky minority.

Sturgeon, whatever happens next politically, is as responsible as much as anyone except Salmond for promoting the cause of independence. That she never quite made it to the second referendum doesn’t dispel that fact, and for many devotees in her party she may well enjoy the kind of cultish “she can do no wrong” aura enjoyed by Johnson and Trump. Nonetheless, her present problems have obviously done much harm to the SNP and the cause of independence, and they will reverberate for as long as it takes for them to be settled.

This is because Sturgeon herself posed in contrast to the Tories in London. During the pandemic especially, when she set herself up as the antithesis of the bumbling, hypocritical English counterpart, her cool professionalism was admired throughout the UK. If the mask slipped occasionally, it was forgiven. The Scottish people appreciated her leadership. She was the very personification of the values they sought to find in themselves: a serious people, but with a touch of grace and humour as they went about their business. Above all never in danger of being arrested, let alone raised, by Police Scotland. The qualities people saw in Sturgeon reflected well on the cause and the party she represented. Now all of that has been thrown into reverse.

Humza Yousaf, her successor as first minister, hasn’t a hope of getting a grip on his challenges while Sturgeon dominates the headlines for all the wrong reasons. It is an an uncomfortable echo of the way Johnson frustrates Sunak’s attempts to get his work done. Her departure was meant to open the way for a party debate on the best way to secure the elusive second independence referendum, but the whole enterprise has been set back while her own future hangs in the balance.

No one is contemplating a referendum on separation for the foreseeable future. The arrival of a Labour government, bolstered by a revived Scottish Labour Party and a significant contingent of MPs travelling south to Westminster next year, will make independence even less of an urgent issue. Rather foolishly, Yousaf casually tossed away any bargaining strength he might have had with Starmer in a hung parliament during an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. Asked if there were any circumstances in which he’d prop up a Tory government, he haughtily dismissed the notion, thus letting Starmer know that, whatever happens, the SNP won’t let the Tories back in.

Starmer has already ruled out any fresh referendum in any case, and as support for the SNP and independence slumps in the polls, he’ll have no reason to pursue that particular policy. Indeed, Yousaf has said he wouldn’t want to press the case until there’s a much more reliable and durable groundswell for independence than in 2014, when they lost. Besides all that, Starmer looks like he’ll enjoy an historic landslide, and won’t need to worry about the SNP. In fact, looking forward to the Holyrood elections in 2016, Scottish Labour could be plausible challengers for the government of Scotland for the first time in two decades. The next first minister might well be Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s combative leader.

The likely by-election coming up in Rutherglen – to replace Margaret Ferrier, the SNP MP who was suspendend from the Commons over a Covid rule breach – which should be an easy gain for Labour from the Scot Nats, will be a significant moment. In short, the SNP can’t rule forever.

One wouldn’t want to exaggerate things, though. Sturgeon’s difficulties may end up less serious than they appear, or her enemies would wish. The cause of Scottish independence isn’t going to disappear; it has simply grown too big for that. Indeed, it may “de-couple” from the SNP, and transfer to the other very small pro-independence groups such as Alba and the Scottish Greens, or people might just “lend” Labour their vote to be rid of an English-dominated Tory government while independence remains a more distant prospect. In any election held soon, the SNP would still either win or come second.

But there’s no doubt that the momentum behind the SNP and independence has faltered, and is now going sharply into reverse. They’re disintegrating as rapidly as the despised Tories are south of the border, and, across the land, it is Labour that is the prime beneficiary. Who’d have thought a couple of short years ago when Johnson and Sturgeon were the twin collisi of our lands, threatening in their different ways to tear apart our United Kingdom. For now, at least, that particular nightmare is over.