If you’re worried New York is about to elect a Republican, here’s what you need to know

Logically, a state like New York shouldn’t vote Republican. The 6.5 million registered Democratic voters in the state dwarf the 2.9 million Republicans. Even if you throw in the 3 million independent voters here, Republicans still wouldn’t surpass the massive built-in lead Democrats have.

With that in mind, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul should be resting comfortably. And her opponent, Republican Representative Lee Zeldin, should be flailing about somewhere in rural upstate, surrounded by true believers but ignored by everybody else as more competitive elections around the country suck up all the attention. But that’s not what’s happening now.

Over the past few weeks, Democrats have been ringing alarm bells. The governor is in trouble, they say. A shock poll showed Hochul and Zeldin in a tie, and the conservative New York Post trumpeted it on the front page. This past week, Hochul brought in the big guns: Bill and Hillary Clinton, as well as Joe Biden, have all led 11th-hour get-out-the vote rallies for her.

That she even needed these political titans to drag her across the finish line in deep blue New York has sent Democratic observers into existential dread and despair about their future. Could it actually happen? Could a Republican win the governorship of New York for the first time in 20 years?

The short answer is no. The slightly longer answer is no, not likely.

It takes some hubris to make such a prediction hours before the polls close on Election Day. I’ll admit it’s statistically possible for Zeldin to win, but the odds are slim enough that I feel comfortable sticking my neck out without fear of a surprise guillotine coming down to humble me.

There are quite a few reasons why Hochul is more secure than the headlines would have you believe. The most obvious one is the aforementioned gargantuan number of Democrats in her state. They lead Republicans two-to-one in registration. This doesn’t mean Democrats are invulnerable, but it is as solid a defense as any politician could wish for.

Secondly, the few polls showing a tight race that have caused Democrats such anxiety are dwarfed by the number of polls showing Hochul winning. Of the past 10 polls tracked by the data gurus over at FiveThirthEIght, two have shown a statistical tie. Eight have shown Hochul leading comfortably, and five of those show her leading by double digits.

The news is even better for Hochul upon closer examination. Those two tied polls? They were conducted by Republican firms. One of them was performed by KAConsulting, a group owned by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. FiveThirtyEight considers it a pretty mediocre outlet. The other, the Trafalgar group, is much more respected. Still, the polling average has Hochul leading by eight points.

This is a comfortable lead for Hochul. It’s not so gigantic that if the stars aligned perfectly for Republicans, they couldn’t overcome it. But by all accounts, the stars aren’t aligning, namely for one reason: Lee Zeldin.

Vermont, Maryland, and Massachusetts are deep blue states, bluer even than New York. They voted for Biden over Trump by greater margins than New York did in 2020. Vermont has Bernie Sanders, the most famous socialist in America, as its senator. Yet, all three states are currently led by a Republican governor. So on paper, New York’s blue wall isn’t insurmountable for the right Republican. But there’s plenty of evidence Zeldin is not that.

In those three states, Republicans nominated a moderate Republican for their candidate, and they were rewarded with victories. These Republicans are so far outside the mainstream of their party that all three of them supported the impeachment of Donald Trump. On third-rail issues such as abortion and other social issues, they align with Democrats.

Lee Zeldin is different. He’s fiery and combative. He is a Trump loyalist who voted against certifying the 2020 election results. He is so anti-abortion that he co-signed a “friend of the court” brief demanding that the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade, which they ultimately did this summer.

For a Republican to win in New York, two factors must be present. One, there must be massive discontentment towards the Democratic incumbent. Two, the Republican candidate in question must reassure enough Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents that they are not like those “other Republicans” across the country, whose views are repugnant to liberals. Zeldin is not making that case.

And for that matter, Hochul really isn’t that unpopular in New York. Recent polls have her approval rating hovering between positive in the high single digits to negative by low single digits. Even if the latter is correct, a mildly unpopular governor is not enough to make New York go red.

Why the Democratic freak-out, then? For one, Hochul is an accidental governor. She came to power last year because Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced ex-governor, resigned, and as lieutenant governor, she automatically got promoted. Before that, she was unknown to the public. Nobody voted for her thinking she would ever lead the state.

At the same time, Zeldin has been hammering her on New York’s crime rate after multiple stories of violent, random assaults put voters on edge. Crime, or the perception of crime, is an omnipresent election issue in the state, and Hochul has the burden of running on 16 years of Democratic rule while having had very little time in office to make an impact of her own.

With things looking grim nationwide for Democrats this midterm, they’re seeing Republican boogeymen around every corner, threatening even their citadel of New York. But Democratic anxiety is nothing new, and with a right-winger like Zeldin as their opponent, they should go into tonight comfortable with their hold on the governor’s mansion.

For the rest of the country? They should keep a vial of Tums nearby, and a stiff drink. Not everywhere is New York.