International reaction to nerve agent attack plunges relationship between Kremlin and the West into crisis

The decision to throw out more than 100 Russians working under diplomatic accreditation by 21 countries is the largest such expulsion since the end of the Cold War, and plunges relations between the Kremlin and the West into one of the worst state in recent history.

Russia denounced the “provocation”, and announced that it will retaliate with expulsions of its own. But the attempted assassination of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter – if indeed it was ordered by Moscow – is proving a very costly affair for Vladimir Putin.

The show of solidarity with Britain has been quite remarkable. Some of the countries, like the Baltic States and Poland, were expected to show their traditional antipathy towards Russia, but the actions of Germany, France and Italy demonstrate the level of disquiet over Russia allegedly carrying out the first nerve agent attack in Europe since the Second World War.

The most surprising punitive move, however, has come from the US, which accounts for the bulk of those expelled: 60.

This is highly significant on a number of levels. Donald Trump had to be almost dragged to make an initial statement condemning the attack, and had hardly said anything subsequently on the matter.

The US President, who is quick to criticise people across the world at a drop of a hat, had never said anything negative about Mr Putin since he got to the White House, and did not do so on this occasion either.

Instead, Mr Trump ignored his advisers to congratulate the Russian President on his election victory, while failing to mention the poison attack during the call.

Mr Trump remains, of course, under investigation for his links with Russia and the Kremlin’s interference in the election which brought him to power. And there is, so far, resounding Twitter silence from him about the expulsions.

The US State Department, however, was unequivocal in its condemnation, calling the attack an “outrageous violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention and breach of international law”.

The department said: “On 4 March, Russia used a military grade nerve agent to murder a British citizen and his daughter in Salisbury. The attack on our ally the United Kingdom put countless innocent lives at risk and resulted in serious injury to three people, including a police officer.”

The US is expelling 48 diplomats at the embassy in Washington and 12 more at the UN in New York. In addition, it has also ordered the closure of the Russian consulate in Seattle. There have been repeated warnings from the American security and intelligence agencies that Moscow will seek to interfere in the coming mid-term elections, and there has long been concern about Russian presence in Seattle with Boeing the aerospace firm and a submarine base both close by.

France and Germany have expelled four diplomats each, and Italy two. These are significant gestures after initial scepticism about Russia’s involvement by all three countries.

When the Elysee was asked what steps it will take against Russia after Theresa May accused Moscow of being responsible for the Salisbury poisoning, Benjamin Griveaux, spokesman for Emmanuel Macron, was almost withering: “We don’t do fantasy politics. Once the elements are proven, then the time will come for decisions to be made,” he said.

In Italy, Matteo Salvini, who may become the next prime minister following the recent election, responded to the allegations of Moscow’s involvement by suggesting we “see and hear a lot of fake news” and that “in 2018 you don’t go around poisoning people”.

The German foreign minister, Heiko Maas, asked for more “clarification” from London and suggested that what happened was essentially a “bilateral issue” between Russia and Britain.

It remains to be seen what other punitive steps the West is willing to take. The European Council President, Donald Tusk, held that “additional measures including further expulsion are not excluded in coming days, weeks.”

One obvious and effective step would be for Mr Macron to cancel his planned visit to Russia due to take place in two months’ time. That would certainly be a statement of disapproval to President Putin.

Germany, meanwhile, can pull out of its involvement with Russia in a pipeline project which will take Russian gas to Germany. Berlin maintains that the €10bn (£8.75bn) Nord Stream 2, will buttress Europe’s energy security by ensuring steady gas supplies at a time when the continent’s energy resources are dwindling.

But Poland and eastern European states are deeply concerned it will give Moscow great and dangerous strategic leverage over Europe.

We also await the Russian reaction. When Barack Obama kicked out 35 Russian diplomats in reaction to Moscow’s election meddling, Michael Flynn, then national security advisor to the incoming President Trump, is said to have asked the Russians to sit tight: the new administration will put matters right.

Mr Putin, initially at least, did so, leading to Mr Trump reportedly endorsing the comment that Russia’s leader “was the only adult in the room”.

Mr Flynn has now gone, helping Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Mr Trump after having pleaded guilty to the charge of lying to the FBI about his Russia contacts.

But what Mr Putin and Mr Trump, the two most powerful men in the world, do next will play a large part in shaping this unfolding crisis.