Where are Pete Buttigieg's votes going on Super Tuesday? The numbers tell an interesting story

Last night, a mere two days before the primary showdown known as Super Tuesday, former South Bend, Indiana mayor and Iowa caucus winner Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary. Following the 30-point victory of Vice President Joe Biden in South Carolina on Saturday, it’s worth taking a look at what this strategic move means in light of tomorrow’s primary elections.

Few pundits expected Buttigieg to drop out of the race prior to Super Tuesday. So, the question that remains is where those voters will go now. Early this morning, the top Twitter trend was #PetetoBernie, with Sanders supporters imploring Buttigieg supporters to come over to their team before the upcoming primaries. Irrespective of the somewhat lukewarm responses on those tweets, it does not appear that the trend moves the needle in Bernie Sanders’ favor. It has also been postulated, for what it’s worth, that many of these tweets have been the work of Russian trolls.

“Sanders’ chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates fell from 28 per cent to 23 per cent,” Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver reported this morning. “And the likelihood that no candidate gets a majority rose slightly from 59 to 64 per cent.” So where are voters headed? According to Silver, not necessarily to the likely alternative, Joe Biden, who reinvigorated his campaign with a substantial South Carolina win and a moving Saturday night speech. “Former Vice President Joe Biden’s majority chances were unchanged,” Silver said of the post-Buttigieg forecast.

In February, a Quinnipiac University poll indicated that 26 per cent of likely Buttigieg voters would vote for Senator Amy Klobuchar as their second choice. But Klobuchar looked much stronger a few weeks ago, so whether or not this data proves relevant today remains to be seen. That same poll also indicated a high preference for Senator Elizabeth Warren as an “other than” vote; 19 per cent of his supporters said they would support Warren in a race without Buttigieg.

But here’s where it actually gets interesting. That same poll had voters polling at the same exact percentage — 19 — for Joe Biden. That means that Saturday night’s performance could have actually paved a path for the former Vice President, whose campaign, prior to the South Carolina primary, looked to be on life support. Should the majority of Buttigieg’s voters turn to Biden in now-uncertain times, the entire face of the race could change.

Most pollsters are relying on late February polls in order to make predictions about the likely outcome of tomorrow’s races. Here are two things to consider. First, Tom Steyer, another moderate candidate with a much smaller following, also dropped out this weekend, meaning that there are actually more votes up for grabs than the 5 to 15 per cent that was likely to go to Buttigieg in each of the Super Tuesday states. Second, a strong performance with the minority vote may tell voters about larger patterns in the general election.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg is unlikely to turn out certain factions, owing, in large part, to his stop-and-frisk policy in New York City. Bernie Sanders has long had a problem with the minority vote, and although there have been reports that the trend is changing for him, he still has not proven that he can get new voters out. Last week, the New York Times reported that Sanders’ turnout is basically on par with turnout numbers from years past. “In Iowa, for instance, turnout for the caucuses was lower than expected, up 3 per cent compared with 2016 … [I]n the Iowa precincts where Mr Sanders won, turnout increased by only 1 percentage point,” one report stated.

Are Pete Buttigieg voters likely to switch over to Bernie Sanders following the Sunday announcement? That outcome is most probable in liberal California, where Sanders was already expected to win by a substantial margin, but where Biden may not meet the viability threshold of 15 per cent. That’s because many of those Buttigieg voters were still aligned with the mayor’s earlier, more progressive campaign stump, a stump that grew more conservative in the final months of his candidacy.

But the Bernie Sanders campaign also had a Pete Buttigieg problem, and it was a problem of optics. Incensed Sanders supporters began calling Buttigieg a “rat” some weeks ago, identifying him with corporate money and what they perceived to be a move against Medicare for All. It seems unlikely that the majority of Buttigieg votes would go to Sanders, given the circumstances. Further, the moderate vein of Buttigieg’s campaign is more accurately reflected in the moderate candidates who are still standing.

Where we land is this: in a race full of twists and turns, Biden’s propulsion out of South Carolina and the drama between Sanders supporters and other camps just may put a moderate back in the running.