Spineless May and Corbyn deserve each other, but the country deserves better

Theresa May is in denial about her latest U-turn, still insisting the UK can still leave the EU on 29 March. Writing in today’s Daily Mail, she claims the UK “remains firmly on course” to depart, even though she opened the door to a three-month extension yesterday.

For once, with May, everything has changed. Some Tory Eurosceptics will back down and reluctantly vote for her withdrawal agreement next month, especially if the Democratic Unionist Party buys new EU assurances on the Irish backstop. But I suspect May’s deal will again be defeated. By conceding the possibility of a short extension to the Article 50 process, she has scuppered her own “double squeeze”, which threatened pro-EU Tory and Labour MPs with a no-deal exit, while also threatening Eurosceptics with a long delay and no Brexit.

Both groups now have little incentive to vote for May’s deal on 12 March. The pro-Europeans can vote for an extension over the following two days, and use the three-month window to build a cross-party consensus – probably for a soft Brexit based on a permanent customs union, which Labour supports. Brexiteers who want to leave without a deal believe they can sit tight and wait for the next cliff edge at the end of June.

Sensible ministers and backbenchers have rightly flexed their muscles to prevent an immediate crash-out and, not surprisingly, the Eurosceptics don’t like it. They have revived their silly slurs, with David Davis telling May to “ignore the saboteurs, the wreckers and the blackmailers”.

Her body language in the Commons showed that May performed her U-turn through gritted teeth – to head off resignations by 20 ministers opposed to no deal and defeat in the Commons tonight on Yvette Cooper’s proposed bill to force the government to seek an Article 50 extension.

The prime minister has more in common with Jeremy Corbyn than it appears. Both blinked under pressure, betraying their weakness, and have been forced to announce policies in which they don’t believe.

When he announced to the parliamentary party on Monday that Labour might after all support a Final Say referendum, one MP compared him to a hostage reading out a statement. May knows the feeling: she does not want to extend Article 50 but was bounced by pro-EU cabinet ministers Amber Rudd, Greg Clark and David Gauke.

Corbyn was forced into his U-turn by the threat of more resignations from the party by Labour MPs, on top of the eight who left last week to form the Independent Group. It was a piece of political management rather than a sudden conversion to the referendum cause. Corbyn wants to show Remain Labour MPs and members he has tried to secure a referendum, but hopes to fail. His shift does not guarantee a public vote. He will support a “confirmatory referendum” only if a deal is approved and will not help May secure hers. Sadly, Corbyn stopped short of supporting the plan by Labour backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson to allow May’s agreement to pass in return for a referendum in which Remain would also be on the ballot paper.

Both May and Corbyn expend much energy on papering over the divisions in their now fractured parties, rather than seeking the cross-party compromise they claim they want and MPs will now impose, possibly through a series of indicative votes on Brexit options. May reportedly rejected chancellor Philip Hammond’s call for such votes in cabinet yesterday. But she will be powerless to stop MPs holding them, aided by the Commons speaker John Bercow. May will also come under enormous pressure to allow free, unwhipped votes, which would make it easier to find where consensus lies in parliament. MPs who want a softer Brexit feel emboldened by this week’s events. Significantly, Rudd told the cabinet that any period of extra time should be used to “find a new coalition in parliament”.

The cliff edge in June may not prove as threatening as May made out. Having diverted the country away from it once, MPs will surely find a way to do so again. Cooper’s bill, now shelved, could easily be revived. Brussels sources tell me a second extension would be possible: the EU does not want to lose a “blame game” after a no-deal departure. The European parliament elections in May present a problem, but one which can be solved. Don’t underestimate the EU’s ability to find a fix. For example, the UK could nominate MEPs for a short period.

Both party leaders prefer to put off rather than take decisions. May has again tried to avoid taking sides between her party’s pro-Europeans and Eurosceptics, by nominally keeping no deal on the table. Corbyn has moved on a referendum, but not by as much as the headlines suggest.

The two leaders will soon have to make the hard choices they have ducked. Perhaps they deserve each other. But the country surely deserves better.