Boris Johnson is desperate to avoid a rebellion by Tory MPs – hence talk of ‘irreversible’ lockdown easing

Boris Johnson has dampened hopes among Conservative MPs that the successful vaccine rollout will allow the government a quicker route out of lockdown. Visiting a health centre today, he said: “We've got to be very prudent and what we wanted to see is progress that is cautious but irreversible and I think that's what the public and people up and down the country will want to see.”

There have been precious few moments for Johnson to savour during the Covid-19 pandemic, but hitting the target of 15 million vaccinations is undoubtedly one of them. Although juggling second doses while extending first jabs down the age scale will be challenging, ministers hope they will achieve their target for all over-18s to be inoculated well before the official September deadline.

But the huge success of the vaccination programme has not brought Johnson much respite. It has encouraged lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs to argue that all the restrictions should be lifted once over-50s have been immunised by the end of April.

His cautious words confirm that this is a much faster timetable than Johnson has in mind. We are inevitably in for a week of intense media speculation before he issues his roadmap out of lockdown on 22 February. Some of what we will read in our newspapers will be proved wrong.

However, there is an emerging consensus about the order of priority, with schools returning on schedule on 8 March, possibly with a slight relaxation on meeting others outdoors; followed later by the reopening of non-essential retail and then hospitality.

The dispute between Johnson and the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) of Tory MPs is about how quickly retail and hospitality should return. There are welcome signs the prime minister has learnt lessons from last year, when restrictions were lifted too quickly.

Like everyone else, Johnson wants to ensure the current lockdown in England is the last; indeed, businesses desperate to reopen would not thank him if they restarted only to be shuttered again weeks later (again). Johnson would also face a public backlash if he relaxes too soon and has to reapply the brakes, squandering the real world and political gains from the vaccine rollout.

The case – what Johnson allies call an approach based on data not dates – is overwhelming. Not least crucial data later this week on how well the vaccine prevents transmission. But that is not how it looks to the 63 Tories who signed a letter to the PM demanding the curbs end by 1 May.

They have convinced themselves that “the scientists” are pulling Johnson’s strings, and have “moved the goalposts” by insisting on a low level of new infections before the curbs end. However, this fails to take account of the very real threat from new variants of the virus, which is more dangerous with cases at a higher level.

Steve Baker, the CRG vice chair, insisted today that the group is “not plucking dates out of the diary” but is linking its relaxation plan with the vaccine rollout. On BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he argued that “livelihoods affect lives”, with poverty shortening people’s lives. Baker denied the Tory rebellion would make Johnson’s leadership an issue. This is wise: the last time he did this, Baker beat a retreat two hours later, and Johnson is now riding high in Toryland on the back of the vaccine programme.

However, the PM cannot ignore 63 of his own MPs. He knows how strongly they feel about lockdown easing. Some 53 Tories voted against his tiered system in December. He will probably want to renew some of the current restrictions when they expire on 31 March. Johnson will be desperate to avoid a similar revolt, forcing him to rely on the votes of the opposition parties, which would be the booster Keir Starmer needs.

So the PM’s dilemma will be acute. The CRG will make a lot of noise, amplified by their cheerleaders in the press. Johnson is a politician who desperately wants to please everyone but should know by now this is impossible in the pandemic. Splitting the difference between “the scientists” and his fractious MPs would merely risk repeating last year’s mistakes.

This time, Johnson must not blink. Short-term pain from his Tory critics would be worth the long-term gain for the country.