As scenes of chaos swamped the Commons, I asked senior Tories one key question

Now what? I’ve gone one better than Boris Johnson, who wrote two alternative columns to try and work out if he supported Brexit or not. This is my fourth version, with every incarnation overtaken by events.

First, I thought I’d write about how Vladimir Putin and the growing crisis in Russia might keep Liz Truss in office for a while longer. Then I homed in on fracking and the bizarre spectacle of Conservative MPs being whipped to vote against their own 2019 election manifesto. Finally, I thought I’d settled on the damage MPs fear Truss has done to their party.

But then the chief whip quit, senior Tories relayed scenes of unimaginable chaos in the Commons, and I realised I’d have to start all over again.

So here goes with my best thoughts on where everyone (including Liz Truss) goes from here:

I tweeted and texted “now what?” and received a range of responses, some serious, others less so. Many sent GIFs summing up the “end of days” feel to the Truss premiership. Others helpfully suggested drinking a lot of coffee.

In response to my two-word question, a senior former cabinet minister texted simply: “F*** knows”. That didn’t inspire confidence. But another MP you might describe as a “greybeard” was incandescent about what went on yesterday, and rather more certain of next steps.

First, of the chaos and reports of “manhandling” in the Commons lobby as Tory MPs came under pressure to vote against Labour’s fracking ban motion, the MP I contacted said he was virtually speechless with rage, after witnessing young colleagues in tears. “It’s beyond anything I’ve ever seen in my political lifetime,” he said, adding that the whole sorry mess had crystallised animosity towards Truss herself.

As to what happens next, there is a growing expectation, as my colleague Gary Gibbon reported on Channel 4 News last night, that a deluge of letters expressing no confidence in the prime minister awaits the 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady in his morning postbag. Then what, though?

The woman Dominic Cummings nicknamed the “human hand grenade” is now not only accused (by her own MPs) of blowing up the government, the British economy, but finally their own party. And that’s part of the reason why although yesterday’s fresh fiasco may have galvanised many to put pen to paper, there is still no consensus on a successor.

When Suella Braverman quit as home secretary yesterday, the Conservative peer and former party chairman Sayeeda Warsi mercilessly poked fun at the departing cabinet minister who’d “dreamed” of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda before Christmas. Accompanied by a picture of a pink plane and a thought bubble saying “Bye! Bye!”, Warsi tweeted: “‘I have a dream…’ Yes me too! And mine came true. Bye bye.”

The Conservatives are now so utterly split it’s hard to imagine how people like Warsi and Braverman can co-exist in the same party. So, of course, it’s almost impossible to see how they can coalesce around someone to replace Truss. Perhaps Braverman will end up throwing in her lot with Nigel Farage? “I am not sure that she will be missed by many,” one of her Tory colleagues says acidly.

Both the Conservatives and Labour were divided over Brexit. But while Labour has healed, after a rancorous leadership election, the Tories are more bitterly fractured than ever. Whether it’s cutting taxes versus protecting public spending; saving the environment or going for growth at all costs: they can’t seem to agree on anything, let alone who leads them.

But a great many Conservative MPs I spoke to do now concur that things must not be allowed to continue as they are, with the country, the government and their proud party being mocked and ridiculed across the world.

So, the men and women in grey suits now appear to be taking matters into their own hands. “I hope a grown-up picks a leader. Jeremy Hunt will become PM. Or Rishi [Sunak] or Penny [Mordaunt],” said my greybeard source.

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The problem many Conservatives don’t want to confront, however, is that, whatever scenario plays out, the pressure for a general election will continue to build.

As I finish writing, The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope tweets that officers from the 1922 Committee are expected to meet today [Thurs] to discuss the escalating crisis. The Sun’s Harry Cole tweets: “No 10 gone into full bunker mode.” Oh, and the chief whip remains in post.

The former cabinet minister Michael Gove remarked earlier this week that it was no longer a question of “if” Truss went, but “when”. The “when” may be almost upon us.

Cathy Newman is Presenter and Investigations Editor of Channel 4 News