Leading Article: Gone fishing, not yet sunk

SURELY the most astounding occurrence in an unceasingly dramatic and unpredictable American election is the current onslaught on President Bush. At the end of last year he still appeared invincible. Only six months ago, leading Democrat hopefuls were opting to stay out of the race because they believed Mr Bush had it sewn up. Now, a fortnight away from the Republican convention, he is 30 points behind Bill Clinton in the polls. His campaign looks dead in the water and frustration in his own party ranks is rife.

As the clamour for the removal of Vice- President Quayle from the ticket subsides, some conservatives are daring to suggest that it is the President who should go. Knives are being sharpened for Mr Bush, because he, at least as much as the hapless Mr Quayle, is perceived as part of the problem. Last week he accepted advice that he should curtail his planned 11-day summer break in Kennebunkport because they wanted no more television images of the President playing golf and fishing while Mr Clinton continues his barnstorming campaign. Even when Mr Bush is on the trail, he appears listless and tired. He can still deliver a stump text, but when caught unawares he can ramble in a way uncannily reminiscent of Ronald Reagan. He does not look like a man able to lead his country out of its present mess - or even one who especially wants to.

Other factors are working against Mr Bush and the Republicans to make this year's campaign a much tougher proposition than the 1988 fight against Michael Dukakis. Mr Clinton, who seemed mortally wounded by scandal and personal controversy at the start of the race, is proving a much more resilient and streetwise opponent. Unlike Mr Dukakis, he has the look of a winner. But above all, the race is being run against a background of deep economic pain and popular pessimism. Latest polls indicate that 79 per cent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. In November 1988, roughly half the population was satisfied with the country's heading. The coalition built up in better times by Mr Reagan of conservatives, traditional Republicans and middle-of-the-road Democrats is splitting.

But this electorate is in a fickle mood. Mr Clinton himself has demonstrated that a return from the near-dead is possible. Republicans are praying for miracles from Mr Bush's old friend and political adviser, James Baker, who, it is assumed, will take over the President's campaign later this month. If he does, he can be expected to set about destroying Mr Clinton, in part by re-igniting the old allegations of infidelity and draft-dodging. He will also aim fire directly at the soft spots of the Clinton campaign - the vagueness of his economic plan, his proposal to increase taxes for middle-income groups as well as the rich and, in Republican eyes, his over-friendliness towards gays and environmental extremists.

In California last week Mr Bush promised he would 'roll up his sleeves' and go on the attack after the convention. Given the ground he has to make up, it remains a puzzle why he has not done so earlier. But Mr Bush is not a good loser. He enjoys the fact of leadership, even if at times he does not seem to know what to do with it. In an election of shocks and surprises, Mr Bush's withdrawal would come as the biggest surprise and shock of all.