The main reason Joe Biden’s numbers are sagging against Trump

A New York Times/Siena College poll dropped on Tuesday, meaning that Democrats either fretted about President Joe Biden’s low poll numbers and the fact he is losing narrowly to former president Donald Trump or soothed themselves by noting the election is still 11 months away.

The poll does show some alarming numbers, including a whopping 58 per cent disapproval rating for Mr Biden. Nearly three-quarters of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 disapprove of how Mr Biden has handled the war between Israel and Hamas, and now 49 per cent say they would back Mr Trump compared to 43 who say they would back Mr Biden.

All of this should worry Democrats. No incumbent president has had an approval rating below 40 per cent at this stage. The US exit from Afghanistan, persistent frustration with stubbornly high prices at the grocery store and questions about Mr Biden’s advanced age all compound his struggle to win another four years.

But there is perhaps another reason that Mr Trump persistently beats Mr Biden: voters still don’t want to believe that the United States is set for a Trump-Biden rematch. And as of right now, they are grieving the fact the United States will run back the 2020 election with fewer Covid masks and higher prices.

Mr Biden’s coalition in 2020 was always fragile. It included more traditionally Democratic voters such as African Americans and younger people, along with former Republicans who were dissatisfied with the direction of the GOP under Donald Trump, other new additions like suburbanites and college-educated city-dwellers who broke for more progressive options in the Democratic primary such as Sens Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

After many feared that the 2016 primary bruised Hillary Clinton too much by the time she faced Mr Trump, voters made an agreement: get behind Mr Biden, even if he didn’t fulfill all their policy checklists, in the name of beating someone they considered a mortal threat to democracy.

Mr Biden himself seemed like the perfect vessel for this mission: He had spent years as a dutiful footsoldier as a senator and then Barack Obama’s vice president. His advanced age made some believe that he would serve a single term. When he campaigned in Michigan with fresher faces like Sen Cory Booker, Gov Gretchen Whitmer and his eventual running mate Kamala Harris, he said: “I view myself as a bridge not as anything else.” Once Mr Trump was out of the picture, disagreements about the future of the Democratic Party, and America as a whole, could resume.

Mr Biden never had any other true mandate except to beat Mr Trump. As a result, he was always going to anger some moderates when he enacted progressive policy like student loan forgiveness and he would frustrate progressives when he talked about funding police or supporting Israel.

Perhaps that revealed some naivete on the part of the electorate and pundits. But it is where people are nonetheless. A majority of Republican voters have either resigned themselves to the fact that Mr Trump will be the nominee or have had more than a year to enthusiastically cheer him back to winning the GOP nomination for president.

Most of the country isn’t there. A Data for Progress survey found that only 51 per cent of voters think that the 2024 presidential contest will be between Mr Biden and Mr Trump.

Voters are at this point, fair to say, in the denial state of grieving the idea of a 2020 replay. More progressive voters who are upset at his policies about Israel – which means they are often more informed about the state of politics – are either in the bargaining or anger phase. They likely won’t get to the point of acceptance until Mr Trump has already won the Republican nomination, which will set in the reality that this will be the contest.

None of this is to diminish the real challenges or legitimate dissatisfaction would-be Democratic voters feel toward Mr Biden. Muslim American voters in Michigan, young voters in swing states like Arizona and Georgia or non-college-educated Hispanic voters in Las Vegas could easily believe Mr Biden is not doing enough and simply stay home. But as of right now, most voters are registering their feelings about the race as it currently stands.

Side Note: Your dispatcher is joining Congress on vacation for Christmas for the next few days, so Inside Washington will not come out during this time. Happy Holidays, however you celebrate.