Would a Speaker Jim Jordan doom the House GOP majority?

Donald Trump was never going to be speaker of the House after Rep Matt Gaetz staged his coup against Kevin McCarthy. But the former president officially joined the fray in an early post on Truth Social throwing his support behind Ohio Rep Jim Jordan.

The right-wing firebrand has long been a favorite of conservatives, having been one of the leading voices among House Republicans after the Tea Party wave, working with Sen Ted Cruz to shut down the government in 2013 and leading the charge to depose John Boehner as speaker. His outsized influence meant Mr McCarthy chose to keep him close and Mr Jordan even tried to rally conservatives behind Mr McCarthy during the marathon 15 rounds of votes for speaker back in January.

Of course, to become speaker, that means he cannot just rely on right-wing Republicans who have looked to him for years, and he cannot simply rely on a majority of Republicans, but rather he would need to get an almost wholly unified conference to even have a shot.

That might prove to be his biggest roadblock: Should he become speaker, he would be the highest-ranking elected Republican in the country and every Republican would immediately be tied with him. That might give Republicans who are from swing districts pause and ultimately lead to them not choosing Mr Jordan, regardless of what Mr Trump says.

At this point, the fact the House GOP conference has a slim majority goes without explanation. But for the most part, the focus has stayed on the 15 to 20 conservatives who at any given moment could sink Mr McCarthy or Republican legislative priorities.

Fewer people realise that Republicans have about just as many Republicans from swing districts who would not want to be associated with Mr Jordan or his antics, from leading a subcommittee on the “weaponisation of the federal government,” to his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, to his questioning of the story of a 10-year-old rape victim in his state who sought an abortion in Indiana, to his vociferous defences of Mr Trump.

The current Republican conference includes 18 members who represent districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020. The most notable being New York’s 3rd District held by Rep George Santos, the embattled congressman who represents Long Island and has faced numerous calls to resign as he faces criminal charges.

Almost all of them supported Mr McCarthy’s bid for speaker earlier this year and many of them are furious about the fact that the House once again had a public feud play out on the House floor.

Indeed, many of them likely breathed a sigh of relief that Mr McCarthy came to his senses and passed a continuing resolution on Saturday with Democrats. All but one of the Biden district Republicans voted for the continuing resolution to keep the government open.

Conversely, despite the fact he voted for the bipartisan agreement to raise the debt limit, Mr Jordan opposed the continuing resolution. A Speaker Jordan would ultimately need to decide between passing these types of stopgap funding bills or maintaining the same ideological purity he has tried to maintain and refuse to even put them on the floor.

But the job of a speaker is not just to lead the lower chamber but also to defend the interests of the conference as the highest-ranking member. Similarly, Mr Jordan’s years poking the GOP establishment means he might have trouble raising cash, a key job of any leader, and funneling it to candidates in swing district races, incumbent and challenger alike.

In fairness, Democrats would likely always try to tie endangered Republicans to the Republican leader even if they stand up to Mr Jordan. Republicans did the same thing to Democrats throughout Barack Obama’s presidency even with Democrats who opposed Obamacare, which led to the near-total demise of the rural Democrat. One of the worst accusations during those years was that someone was a stooge of Nancy Pelosi.

In the same respect, even if frontline Republicans oppose Mr Jordan at times, Democrats will still try and tie them to Mr Jordan. And Mr Jordan’s reputation as a top surrogate for Mr Trump would allow Democrats to raise mountains of money.

In fairness, Mr Jordan still needs to clear the hurdles of winning enough Republican votes in his own party before he even thinks of assuming the office. But this will likely be in the front of mind for suburban Republicans from places like California, New York, New Jersey and Arizona.