Antisemitism won’t kill off Corbyn’s chances – but his bad moods and poor spending promises might do it

Jeremy Corbyn played his Trump card in the election today: 451 pages of secret documents about six rounds of initial trade talks between the UK and US which undermine Boris Johnson’s denials of Labour claims that the NHS would be on the table.

The Conservatives think the public do not believe Labour’s “NHS for sale” attack. I’m told they considered a manifesto promise of a law to protect the NHS during the talks on a free trade agreement with the US that would run alongside similar negotiations with the EU after Brexit, but Tory focus groups suggested no such pledge was needed.

Public opinion might change now, after Corbyn revealed unredacted documents suggesting the possible impact on drug prices and “total market access” demanded by the US.

This is a highly sensitive issue. While Theresa May was still prime minister, Donald Trump suggested “everything” would be on the table in the trade talks, but then backed off. Perhaps his original remarks revealed his true intentions. The Tories may well deny that current ministers were involved in or sanctioned the talks, but Corbyn’s revelation will likely reduce voters’ trust in the Tories on the NHS – Labour’s strongest issue.

It was no coincidence that Labour tried to change the music on the morning after Corbyn’s uncomfortable BBC interview with Andrew Neil. Sorry was the hardest word for Corbyn over allegations of antisemitism, after yesterday’s searing attack from chief rabbi Ephraim Mirvis. Corbyn should have used the politicians’ time-honoured device of saying he had previously apologised for antisemitism. Belatedly, at today’s news conference, he recalled that he had expressed sympathy and apologised to those who had suffered.

How damaging is this controversy for Labour? People angry about the issue were already a lost cause. For some who will vote Labour, it was already priced in – even if they feel uncomfortable about it. Criticism of Corbyn’s handling of the problem didn’t stop him doing remarkably well at the 2017 election.

But one reason he did so well then was that he held his frustration at the hated “mainstream media” in check during the 2017 election campaign. He managed to smile and say “nice to see you” when there was a media scrum outside his house, instead of grumpily telling the hunting pack to get out of his way and off his garden. In last night’s interview, the tetchiness was back; it is not a good look.

By turning the spotlight on to his leadership, the interview could affect wavering voters in a “hold your nose” election in which, unusually, both contenders for prime minister are unappealing to many.

Boris Johnson hardly has a clean slate on alleged racism, after likening Muslim women to “bank robbers” and “letterboxes”; there are no comparable quotes from Corbyn leaving him open to the charge of being personally antisemitic. Johnson has delayed and diluted an inquiry into Islamophobia in his party, which he was bounced into by Sajid Javid during the Tory leadership election.

Voters may judge both leaders as bad as each other. A YouGov survey today found that 30 per cent believe Mr Corbyn is personally antisemitic and Johnson is personally racist, while 32 per cent and 41 per cent disagreed respectively.

Antisemitism was always going to raise its head in this election; Labour was braced for attacks were expected from former Labour MPs who have left the party. But Labour did not expect as ferocious an attack as the chief rabbi’s.

Corbyn is paying the price for his previous lack of leadership on antisemitism. He can’t say he wasn’t warned. The appalling handling of it was worse than the original problem. A blind spot meant it wasn’t taken seriously enough, and has been allowed to fester for three years. Instead of stamping it out, the party has given the impression of grudgingly going through the motions, because it believes the idea it could be racist is so preposterous.

Labour hoped the long list of popular policies in its manifesto would compensate for what officials called “the leadership question” in their election planning – a polite way of saying that Corbyn has the worst ratings of any opposition leader. He also trails Johnson on economic competence; no one has become prime minister when behind on both measures. The last time the least popular contender won was when Margaret Thatcher defeated James Callaghan in 1979.

Even the Labour manifesto might not be the game changer it was in 2017. Corbyn was a bit wobbly last night about how his pledges would be paid for. The last-minute £58bn pledge to the “Waspi women” was not included in the manifesto costings, so Labour will not get the credit it got in in 2017 for saying clearly where the money would come from.

According to YouGov, only 17 per cent of the public believe Labour’s manifesto promises are affordable, while 56 per cent do not. The Tory figures are 37 per cent and 35 per cent respectively.

I suspect doubts about the credibility of Labour’s tax and spending plans will be a much bigger problem for the party at this election than antisemitism. And that fears about the Tories’ intentions on the NHS are unlikely to counter the doubts about Labour and Corbyn.