Istanbul’s mayoral election re-run will only make Erdogan weaker

The banging of the pots and pans began at night time, shortly after Turkey’s high election commission voided 31 March Istanbul mayoral elections won by opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu and ordered a 23 June re-run.

The clamour crescendoed into a roar that spread throughout the city, drawing in housewives and students, young and old, some of whom flooded into Istanbul’s streets in protest.

“Hak, hukuk, adalet!” they chanted, rights, law, and justice.

The narrow election victory of Imamoglu could have been a humdrum moment. Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan could have flown into the city, congratulated him, shook Imamoglu hand, and reminded him of the enormous task ahead. After all, Erdogan also served as a mayor of Istanbul during a time of economic uncertainty and both men share roots in the same pious Black Sea region of Turkey’s Anatolian mainland.

Instead, egged on by supporters in social media and the pro-government press, Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) began immediately filing complaint after complaint, alleged vague, dark conspiracies about a vote the government itself oversaw. Pro-government commentators spoke of “terrorist” members of the outlawed Gulen movement manipulating the vote.

Through it all, Imamoglu has remained unflappable, urging supporters to stay patient with what has become his signature catch phrase: “Everything will be beautiful.” On Tuesday, it became the highest trending Twitter hashtag on the earth.

“Do not lose your smiling face, do not lose the hope in our hearts,” he said in a speech Monday night.

Thus, a simple election for mayor of Turkey’s largest city has become a political and social battle of gargantuan proportions. The next 50 days not only threaten to further the divide the country and generate social chaos at a time of economic crisis and austerity, but also pose an obstacle to Erdogan’s party itself, with some supporters acknowledging the transparently bad sportsmanship of the AKP and openly backing the opposition, and others criticising the decision of the High Election Commission (YSK) to cancel the vote on a technicality.

“For the first time and probably the last time in my life I will vote for the CHP's candidate,” wrote Omer Turan, a pro-government journalist. “I will support Imamoglu this election.”

"There is no concrete evidence to cancel the election,” wrote scholar Cemile Bayraktar. “The decision is problematic. It hurts AKP, YSK and Turkey."

Even the country’s top business association, TUSIAD, a pillar of the AKP’s support, criticised the rerunning of the election as a perilous distraction from the first priority of most Turks: restoring an economy battered by inflation, soaring foreign debt payments, unemployment, and a falling currency.

“We have to focus on an extensive economic and democratic reform agenda," said a statement by the group.

There is evidence that the entire country is rallying behind Imamoglu, possibly delivering to him an even bigger victory.

Several Turkish airlines announced that tickets bought on 6 May or before to or from Istanbul could be canceled or changed without charge, allowing residents of the city to return home from their holidays to vote.

During the weeks leading up to the 31 March, Binali Yildirim, the former parliamentary speaker and prime minister, running as the AKP’s candidate, was a lackluster campaigner, leaving the impression that he didn’t really want to be mayor, but was seeking the office as a favour to Erdogan, who led most of the rallies.

It remains unclear if Yildirim, a 63-year-old native of eastern Turkey’s Erzincan region, or Erdogan will be the face of the new campaign.

He may face an uphill battle. For years, the AKP and its Islamist-rooted forebears thrived on a narrative of victimhood, depicting themselves as being usurped by Turkey’s secular and military elite after winning elections.

This time it’s Imamoglu who has had the mandate he received on 17 April ripped away from him – handed (for now) to Istanbul governor and Erdogan appointee Ali Yerlikaya.

"Violations of the law, interventions into civilian politics, closing down of parties, sending people to prison gave birth to the AKP and made Erdogan a leader,” wrote journalist Sirin Payzin. “The AKP is now doing the same thing. The result is that Ekrem Imamoglu is emerging on the stage as a stronger leader.”

None of the parties representing Turkey’s ethnic Kurds, who make perhaps 20 percent of Istanbul’s population, fielded a candidate in 31 March mayoral elections, instead half-heartedly throwing in their support for Imamoglu in what was seen as a long shot mayoral. They will now double down on him.

Despite a disarmingly meek demeanor, Imamoglu himself emerged as a riveting and charismatic speaker, upbeat even when defiant. He uses social media perhaps more effectively than perhaps any leading Turkish politician, showing himself breaking the Ramadan fast at a modest home of a constituent in Istanbul, or ripping off his jacket and tie before addressing supporters.

The 49-year-old developer has become even more confident in the weeks after the election, easing into the role of national leader.

“We are the Turkish youth that believes in democracy and is thirsty for justice,” he said in his speech after learning of the YSK’s decision to cancel the election results. “I know that when I walk this road, I will never walk alone. I will walk with 16 million Istanbul citizens.”